📈 Sugar Market Update: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices Surge Amid Supply Concerns

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw significant gains, with the May 2025 contract jumping by 4.13% to USD 564.80/t (EUR 525.26/t). Short-term contracts led the rally, while long-term contracts showed only moderate gains. The sharp price increase is fueled by supply concerns, speculative buying, and increased industrial demand. However, EU sugar prices remain stable between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as oversupply and weak consumption keep upward movements in check.

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📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments

📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR

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🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences

🔹 Short-Term Contracts Surge Amid Tight Supply & Speculative Buying 📈

• Short-term contracts (May-Dec 2025) saw the strongest gains, indicating immediate supply concerns.
• Speculative interest remains high, with strong trading volumes in near-term contracts.

🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Prices Despite Global Price Surge 🇪🇺

• EU sugar prices remain at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as oversupply and weak demand prevent price hikes.
• Producers continue offering new season contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, though buyers remain hesitant.

🔹 Supply Risks Keep Markets Elevated 🌎

• Geopolitical instability and weather risks are driving uncertainty in the sugar supply.
• India’s production remains weak, while Brazil and Thailand continue steady exports.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (18.03 – 20.03.2025)

📉 Expected Price Movements:

• ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (520 – 529 EUR/t)
• EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg

🔍 Market Outlook:

• Further price increases are possible in the short term, but strong technical resistance is expected.
• The EU market remains stable, with no major demand spikes anticipated.

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📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance

📌 Key Takeaways:

• EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing drastic price movements.
• Imports continue to offset weaker domestic consumption, maintaining price stability.
• Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations consistent.

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🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Key Takeaways:✅ Sugar prices surged due to speculative trading and supply concerns.✅ The EU market remains weak, with producers pushing higher contract prices.✅ Global sugar supply remains balanced, preventing extreme price spikes.✅ Further price volatility is expected, but long-term upside is uncertain.

📊 Market Strategy:🔹 Buyers: Be cautious—higher contract prices for the next season may not be justified if supply remains stable.🔹 Sellers: Consider locking in sales while speculative demand remains strong.🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance near 570 USD/t (529 EUR/t) for potential price reversals.

🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!