Oilseed Markets Remain Under Pressure as Trade Uncertainty and Supply Adjustments Continue
📉 Oilseed Markets Remain Under Pressure as Trade Uncertainty and Supply Adjustments Continue
📍 Oilseed markets are caught in a push-and-pull scenario, with rapeseed futures continuing their downward trend while canola shows signs of recovery. Soybeans remain steady, as shifting global supply and trade disputes add to market uncertainty.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- China’s Trade Restrictions Disrupt Global Rapeseed and Canola Markets 🇨🇳📉→ New tariffs on Canadian imports have intensified supply chain disruptions.→ Traders are monitoring how China’s demand will shift in the coming months.
- Soybean Processing Slowdown in the U.S. Raises Concerns 🏭→ NOPA crush data fell short of expectations, signalling weaker demand.→ Export activity is slowing, with shipments declining week-over-week.
- Strong Brazilian Harvest and Rising Exports Fuel Market Uncertainty 🚢→ Harvest pace is ahead of last year, keeping pressure on global prices.→ Export figures continue to rise, reinforcing Brazil’s position in the global supply chain.
- Shifting Planting Intentions in the U.S. 🌱→ Initial expectations for more corn acreage may shift in favour of soybeans.→ High fertilizer costs and trade disruptions could alter planting strategies.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Conditions Support Crop Development
📍 Current Conditions:→ Moisture levels remain steady, supporting late-season growth.📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Moderate and stable.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Expected to continue, keeping soil conditions favourable.
- 🚨 Impact: Likely to support stable yields and prevent further losses.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Cautious sentiment as trade instability weighs on market confidence.
- Resistance Level: €480/t
- Support Level: €460/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €465 – €475/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Holding steady, but South American supply increases keep the upside limited.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:- Rapeseed and canola markets remain under pressure as trade tensions impact supply chains.
- Soybean demand is slowing, while Brazilian exports continue to rise.
- U.S. planting strategies may shift as farmers adjust to economic conditions.
