📉 Sugar Prices Show Mixed Trends as Market Adjusts to Supply & Demand Shifts

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw mixed movements, with the May 2025 contract declining slightly by 0.34% to USD 562.90/t (EUR 523.50/t), while longer-term contracts posted moderate gains. Short-term demand concerns and technical adjustments weighed on near-term contracts, while speculative interest pushed longer-term contracts higher. Meanwhile, EU sugar prices remain stable at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, with no signs of an imminent price surge despite rising global markets.

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📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments

📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR

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🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences

🔹 Short-Term Weakness vs. Long-Term Strength 📉📈

• May 2025 futures declined, reflecting immediate demand concerns and technical price adjustments.
• Longer-term contracts (Aug 2025 – Mar 2026) showed moderate gains, indicating that traders anticipate higher prices in the future.

🔹 EU Sugar Market: No Change in Spot Prices Despite Higher Contract Offers 🇪🇺

• New contracts for the next season remain at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, yet demand remains insufficient to push current spot prices higher.
• EU sugar prices remain between EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, reflecting continued oversupply and weak industrial demand.

🔹 Global Supply & Trade Outlook Remains Stable 🌎

• India’s production shortfalls persist, but no new export restrictions have been announced.
• Brazil & Thailand continue steady exports, preventing major price spikes.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (19.03 – 21.03.2025)

📉 Expected Price Movements:

• ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (520 – 529 EUR/t)
• EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg

🔍 Market Outlook:

• Prices are expected to stabilize, with short-term consolidation likely.
• Speculative buying in long-term contracts may continue, but fundamental demand remains weak.

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📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance

📌 Key Takeaways:

• EU sugar stocks remain stable, preventing major price spikes.
• Imports continue to support supply, offsetting weaker domestic demand.
• Ethanol production remains steady, keeping sugar allocations stable.

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🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Key Takeaways:✅ Short-term sugar prices declined slightly, while longer-term contracts rose.✅ EU market remains weak, with new contract prices struggling to gain traction.✅ Global sugar supply remains well-balanced, preventing extreme price surges.✅ Further market fluctuations are expected, but no major bullish signals yet.

📊 Market Strategy:🔹 Buyers: Monitor market consolidation, as short-term dips may present buying opportunities.🔹 Sellers: Longer-term contracts show more optimism, so securing future sales could be beneficial.🔹 Traders: Watch for resistance levels near 570 USD/t (529 EUR/t) for potential reversals.

🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!