Almond Prices Jump as California Production Falls
Almond prices are increasing in India due to reduced production in California, the world’s largest almond-producing region. Since early March, US exporters have increased their booking rates, pushing prices up significantly. Indian importers have also responded with similar hikes.
Declining Almond Supply and Rising Demand
- California’s Almond Crop Shrinks
- The 2024 almond harvest is expected to be around 2.15 billion pounds, down from 2.3 billion pounds two years ago.
- Severe weather and water shortages have led about 30-31% of almond growers to stop production.
- Approximately 200-225 farmers have exited almond farming over the last two years due to poor profitability.
- Sharp Fall in Indian Imports
- Almond shipments to India fell by 33% in March compared to last year.
- Current almond stock levels in India are about 37-38% lower than a year ago.
- Rapid Increase in Almond Prices
- Almond kernel prices in India rose sharply from USD 9,36 per kg last week to USD 10,91 per kg currently.
- Prices may soon surpass USD 10,80 per kg if demand stays robust.
- Whole almonds (California variety) also increased from USD 6,60 per kg to USD 6,90 per kg within just four days.
Tight Supplies and Aggressive Buying Drive Prices Higher
- Approximately 70% of last year’s almond stocks have already been sold, leading to limited availability.
- Container arrivals were low in March, with April expected to see even fewer shipments.
- New almond crop bookings have surged in price, jumping from USD 4,10 per pound to USD 5,24 per pound in just two weeks.
Prices Likely to Stay High
- Indian importers and manufacturers have low inventory levels, leading to aggressive purchasing.
- Almond kernel prices from California could continue to rise beyond USD 10,80 per kg.
- Ongoing production issues and climate uncertainties mean almond prices are likely to remain high throughout 2025.
With strong demand and constrained supply, traders and buyers should expect almond prices to remain elevated in the months ahead.
