Brazil’s Sugar Production to Increase in 2025/26 Despite Lower Cane Processing

Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar season is expected to see higher sugar output, even though total sugarcane processing is projected to decline slightly. The increase in sugar production is primarily due to a greater share of sugarcane being allocated for sugar extraction rather than ethanol.

Sugarcane Processing and Production Estimates

• Datagro estimates that 612 million tonnes of sugarcane will be processed in Central-South Brazil, a 1.4% decline compared to the 2024/25 season.
• Despite lower cane availability, sugar production is expected to rise to 42.35 million tonnes, as the share of cane allocated for sugar rises to 51%.
• StoneX predicts a 4% increase in sugar output, reaching 41.7 million tonnes.
• Hedgepoint forecasts a higher 8% increase, expecting 43.3 million tonnes of sugar production.
• Sugarcane processing volume is estimated to be between 608 to 630 million tonnes in 2025/26, depending on various projections.

Factors Driving Increased Sugar Production

• Higher Sugar Yield: More sugarcane is being used for sugar instead of ethanol, increasing sugar output.
• Optimized Mill Operations: Sugar mills in Central-South Brazil are improving processing efficiency.
• Rising Global Demand: Strong international demand is prompting producers to prioritize sugar over ethanol.

Season Kickoff for Brazilian Sugar

• The 2025/26 sugarcane processing season in Central-South Brazil officially begins on April 1, 2025.
• With Brazil being the world’s largest sugar exporter, higher output is expected to influence global sugar prices and trade trends.

Brazil's strategic shift toward higher sugar production may lead to a global supply boost, impacting international sugar markets and price dynamics in the coming months.

This upcoming season is set to reinforce Brazil's dominance in global sugar markets, with increased production likely to impact global sugar prices and trade dynamics.