📜 Wheat Prices Retreat as Market Focus Shifts to Trade and Weather Risks 📜

Wheat markets turned lower again, with Euronext extending losses and CBOT futures following suit. Geopolitical developments, currency fluctuations, and weather concerns are shaping sentiment. Could renewed export activity support prices, or will ongoing market uncertainty push them lower?

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 Euronext wheat prices continue to decline, while CBOT futures show mixed movement.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Geopolitical Developments Drive Market Sentiment

📊 A phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin fueled hopes of a resolution to the Ukraine war, which could impact global wheat supply chains:

• A potential ceasefire would ease concerns over wheat supply disruptions, reducing risk premiums.
• However, uncertainty remains as markets await further developments.

📌 If diplomatic efforts progress, wheat prices may face additional downside pressure.

🔹 📉 Stronger Euro Weighs on Euronext Wheat

📊 The euro continued to strengthen, adding pressure to European wheat prices:

• The ECB set the exchange rate at $1.0918, the highest level since October 2024.
• A stronger euro makes EU wheat less competitive on the global market.

📌 Currency movements continue to influence export competitiveness and price movements.

🔹 📈 U.S. Wheat Exports Gain Momentum

📊 U.S. export demand shows signs of recovery, despite ongoing trade tensions:

• USDA export inspections reached 14.92 million tons this season, still 35% below last year but up 1 million tons in two weeks.
• Germany’s wheat shipments to third countries climbed to 1.75 million tons, up 140,000 tons in two weeks.

📌 While export momentum is improving, it remains significantly below historical levels.

🔹 📉 Iraq Enters Global Wheat Market as an Exporter

📊 Iraq has approved the export of 2 million tons of wheat from domestic production, marking a shift in its traditional role as an importer.

📌 This could slightly impact global trade flows, depending on demand from other importing nations.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days: March 21 - March 23, 2025)

📉 Expected Price Ranges for the Next 3 Trading Days:

📌 If the euro continues to strengthen, Euronext wheat could face further downside pressure, while CBOT may stabilize on export demand.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA (Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma – Winter Wheat Belt)

📍 Current: Mild conditions, moderate soil moisture.📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Temperatures are expected to remain stable.
• 🌧️ Additional rainfall could support wheat development.

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current: Soil moisture remains low, but temperatures are favourable.📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ No frost concerns, but below-average precipitation continues.
• 🌧️ Potential dryness could affect spring planting.

📌 Weather conditions remain a key driver of long-term price movements.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Wheat Ending Stocks (2021–2025)

📍 Wheat Production Forecast 2024/25

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:✅ Euronext wheat struggles due to a strong euro and weak export competitiveness.✅ CBOT futures remain volatile, with a mix of trade optimism and export demand concerns.✅ Geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Iraq’s wheat exports introduce new market dynamics.✅ Weather conditions are improving, but soil moisture remains a concern in some regions.

📌 Strategic Recommendations:🔹 Producers: Monitor the impact of currency fluctuations and potential trade agreements.🔹 Buyers: Consider short-term purchasing opportunities before further geopolitical shifts.🔹 Traders: Expect continued volatility, as market sentiment shifts with trade developments and weather updates.

📍 Markets remain highly sensitive to global trade shifts, weather conditions, and geopolitical factors.