📈 Sugar Prices Rebound Strongly – Market Stabilizes After Sharp Correction

After a brief pullback, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures recovered across all contracts, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.17% to USD 564.00/t (EUR 524.52/t). The recovery is driven by speculative buying, technical support, and ongoing concerns about Indian and Thai production. In the EU, sugar prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA, as spot market demand remains weak, despite forward contracts being offered at EUR 0.62/kg.

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📊 Market Overview: ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices & Developments

📌 Exchange rate used: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR

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🌍 Key Market Drivers & Influences

🔹 Market Stabilization After Correction 🌀

• Speculative buying returned after recent sell-offs, pushing prices higher.
• Technical support levels held, prompting short-term rebound across contracts.

🔹 EU Sugar Market: Forward Contracts Still at EUR 0.62/kg – But Spot Prices Unchanged 🇪🇺

• EU sugar producers continue offering new season contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, banking on tight supply and geopolitical risks.
• However, the spot market remains capped at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg, as industrial demand fails to justify price hikes.
• Overcapacity in the EU and competition from cheaper Polish sugar keep spot prices subdued.

🔹 Global Supply Concerns Persist 🌎

• India’s lower output and dry conditions in Thailand support market sentiment.
• Brazil’s exports remain stable, but logistical delays could pose short-term issues.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (21.03 – 23.03.2025)

📉 Expected Price Movements:

• ICE Sugar No. 5 (May 2025): 560 – 570 USD/t (521 – 530 EUR/t)
• EU Sugar (FCA Price): 0.50 – 0.53 EUR/kg

🔍 Market Outlook:

• Prices may consolidate around current levels, as technical resistance nears.
• Fundamentals remain mixed, with speculative interest supporting prices, but demand is still underwhelming.

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📉 Global Sugar Stocks & Trade Balance

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🔍 Conclusion & Recommendations

📌 Key Takeaways:✅ Sugar prices rebounded due to speculative interest and technical support.✅ EU producers continue to offer high-priced forward contracts, but spot prices remain flat.✅ Global supply is tightening modestly, but there is no immediate shortage risk.✅ Market sentiment is cautious, and further volatility is likely.

📊 Market Strategy:🔹 Buyers: The spot market remains favourable – consider securing volume before potential volatility.🔹 Sellers: Evaluate forward contracts strategically; higher offers may not hold in the current demand climate.🔹 Traders: Watch resistance near 570 USD/t (530 EUR/t) for short-term positioning.

🚀 Stay informed & trade strategically!