Rapeseed Rebounds While Soy Complex Softens – Market Looks Ahead to Key Trade Signals
📈 Rapeseed Rebounds While Soy Complex Softens – Market Looks Ahead to Key Trade Signals
📍 The oilseed market showed mixed signals, with rapeseed prices climbing sharply for a second day in a row, while soybeans came under mild pressure. Traders are reacting to shifting trade flows, evolving South American harvest data, and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. planting decisions.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
📈 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
📉 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Developments
- Rapeseed Surges on Canola Strength and Weaker Euro→ Canola’s earlier gains and a weaker euro reduced import pressure on European rapeseed.→ Canadian farmers are reportedly holding back remaining stocks, tightening near-term availability.
- China’s New Tariffs on Canadian Oilseed Products Take Effect→ 100% duty on canola oil and 25% on canola meal now in place.→ Chinese investigation on seed imports remains open – rapeseed seed trade continues unchanged for now.
- U.S. Farmers Reevaluate Planting Intentions→ Current price ratio favours corn over soybeans.→ Analysts believe soybeans may be more exposed to export risk due to geopolitical tensions.
- Brazilian Harvest Ahead of Schedule, but Abiove Cuts Output Estimate→ Mato Grosso is 97% harvested, exceeding 5-year average.→ Abiove revised production to 170.9 MMT, approaching USDA's 169 MMT figure.
- U.S. Soybean Crush and Exports Show Weakness→ February NOPA crush data fell well below expectations.→ Export expectations for this week: soybeans 0.4–0.9 MMT, meal 140k–470k t, oil 15k–60k t.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
🇦🇷 Argentina: Conditions Favor Yield Stability
📍 Current Situation:→ Moisture levels are improving and supporting crop development.📆 14-Day Forecast:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Stable, no major heat stress expected.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued showers are helping to sustain soil conditions.
- 🚨 Impact: Supports crop quality and protects yield potential.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Outlook: Bullish momentum may continue if Canola holds and the euro stays weak.
- Resistance Level: €495/t
- Support Level: €470/t
- 📊 Range Expectation: €475 – €490/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Outlook: Weak crush demand and Brazil’s export pace weigh on the complex.
- Resistance Level: 1,020 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Range Expectation: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data – USDA Ending Stocks
🔍 6. Takeaways & Recommendations
📈 Market Insights:- Rapeseed is rebounding on technical and fundamental support.
- The soybean outlook remains cautious due to weak processing demand and strong South American supply.
- U.S. planting shifts could become a market mover in the coming weeks.
