US Corn Futures Rise on Improved Export Activity and Production Forecasts

Corn futures rose modestly in March, supported by global trade uncertainties and increased export activity. On March 21, 2025, near-term corn futures increased by 4 to 6 cents per bushel, with new-crop prices also trending upward.

The CmdtyView national average cash price rose by 3.5 cents, reaching USD 0,167 per kg. Export sales reached 1,497,000 tonnes of old crop corn in the week ending March 13—up 26.2% from last year and marking a four-week high. Japan purchased 487,700 tonnes, South Korea bought 397,200 tonnes, and Mexico took 303,700 tonnes.

Despite cancellations totaling 383,600 tonnes from unknown buyers, Japan and South Korea rebooked much of this volume.

The International Grains Council raised its 2024/25 global corn production estimate by 1 million tonnes, while lowering carryout forecasts to 274 million tonnes. Production for 2025/26 could rise by 52 million tonnes, with projected stocks reaching 280 million tonnes.

Corn Futures & Cash Prices (March 21, 2025)

US Agricultural Trade Faces Growing Challenges

The US agricultural sector continues facing trade difficulties. In 2024, agricultural imports reached USD 263 billion, while exports dropped to USD 191 billion, down from USD 213 billion in 2023. Canada and Mexico remain top trade partners, responsible for one-third of US exports and 40% of imports.

China accounts for 14% of US exports, followed by Japan at 7%. On the import side, Brazil and China rank as third and fourth largest suppliers.

Additional Chinese tariffs on USD 21 billion worth of US agricultural goods, notably soybeans, continue pressuring commodity prices. Fresh produce imports now account for 60% of US consumption, compared to 30% in the 1980s.

In 2024, US fresh produce exports totaled USD 7,7 billion, while imports reached USD 33 billion. Avocados, bananas, and blueberries accounted for 27% of imports, primarily from Mexico.

US Corn Recovery 

The recovery in corn prices, amid shifting trade dynamics, changing production forecasts, and global tariff impacts, signals cautious optimism for producers. Traders and producers will need continued adaptation to navigate evolving market conditions effectively.