Rapeseed Rally Slows as Canola Weakens – Soybeans Under Pressure Before USDA Reports
📈 Rapeseed Rally Slows as Canola Weakens – Soybeans Under Pressure Before USDA Reports
📍 The oilseed market ended the week on a mixed note. Rapeseed extended its rally with smaller gains, while soybeans and canola turned lower. As market players await crucial USDA reports and monitor South American harvest progress, uncertainty remains high across global oilseed markets.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
📉 ICECA – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
📌 Rapeseed Recovery Cools Down
- After strong gains earlier in the week, rapeseed’s upward momentum slowed on Friday.
- Weaker canola prices in Canada and a firmer CAD weighed on the EU market.
- Old crop supply tightness still provides limited support in the short term.
📌 USDA Reports in Focus for Soybeans
- Traders are preparing for the USDA’s March 31 reports on U.S. stocks and planting intentions.
- Concerns are rising that soybean acreage may shrink as farmers favour corn.
- Net short positions increased, with speculators selling 6,461 contracts last week.
📌 Brazil Harvest Races Ahead
- According to Patria Agronegocios, 74% of Brazil’s crop is now harvested from 69% a year ago.
- USDA’s Brazil office expects 173 MMT of soybeans in 2025/26, up from 169.5 MMT this season.
- Exports could hit 112 MMT, another record for Brazil.
📉 Palm Oil Under Pressure
- Malaysia’s palm oil exports continue to disappoint, dropping to a four-year low.
- Weaker demand and soft soy oil futures are weighing on prices.
- The benchmark June contract ended the week at 4,376 MYR/t (-4.4% w/w).
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
📍 Argentina:→ Soil moisture remains limited in the northeast due to heat and drought.→ Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its crop estimate by 1 MMT to 48.6 MMT.→ Conditions remain challenging in key growing zones.📍 Brazil:→ Harvest progress is outpacing previous years.→ Strong yields continue in key states, though concerns persist in southern areas.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Outlook: Momentum is slowing; gains may pause without fresh bullish input.
- Resistance: €500/t
- Support: €475/t
- Expected Range: €480 – €495/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Outlook: Volatile ahead of USDA report; limited support from exports.
- Resistance: 1,020 ct/bu
- Support: 995 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Soyabeans Long-Term Outlook – USDA Ending Stocks
🔍 6. Takeaways & Recommendations
📈 Market Insights:- Rapeseed has posted solid weekly gains but may be nearing resistance.
- Soybeans face pressure from slow exports and anticipation of bearish USDA data.
- Canola softens as currency and trade factors weigh on sentiment.
