India's Sugar Exports Limited as Availability Narrows

India’s sugar market for the 2024-25 season is shaping up to be tighter than usual, according to recent data from industry groups like NFCSF, ISMA, and AISTA. These insights are based on information available up to March 20, 2025.

Opening Stock and Production Estimates

Sugar inventories from last season have slight differences in estimates:

• NFCSF and ISMA see around 8 million tonnes (mt).
• AISTA suggests it might be slightly lower, about 7,8 mt.

Production estimates also vary:

How Much Sugar Will Be Available?

Combining the opening stock with new production, here’s what the total availability looks like:

Subtracting the sugar diverted for ethanol production, the net sugar supply available for domestic use and exports is:

Domestic Use and Export Prospects

There's some debate about how much sugar India will actually consume domestically:

• NFCSF estimates around 28,5 mt.
• ISMA believes it'll be about 28,0 mt.
• AISTA expects higher usage, around 29,0 mt.

Exports are currently capped at 1,0 mt, with approximately 0,6 mt already contracted.

End-of-Season Sugar Stocks

By the end of the season, sugar stocks might look like this:

What This Means

• NFCSF's estimate shows tight stocks, though manageable, around 4,4 mt, indicating caution.
• ISMA provides a slightly more comfortable outlook at 5,4 mt, offering some breathing room.
• AISTA's lower estimate at 3,6 mt raises some concerns, especially if exports fully materialize.

Bottom Line

Overall, India's sugar market in 2024-25 appears tightly balanced. With limited surplus, the government's primary focus is likely to remain on ensuring adequate domestic supply rather than pushing exports aggressively.