Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lowers 2025 Forecast Marginally

Brazil's soybean harvest is on track for a record braking crop in 2025, even after the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) slightly lowered its forecast. In its latest review, Abiove reduced the expected harvest by 0,5%, now pegging the total at 170,9 million tonnes, down nearly 1 million tonnes from last month. Despite the cut, this would still mark the largest soybean crop in Brazil’s history.

The upward shift comes primarily from productivity gains across major growing regions after a weak showing in the previous season. Compared to last year’s output, 2025's harvest is expected to be up by 16,5 million tonnes.

Revised Production and Stocks

Abiove has also revised Brazil’s 2024 soybean output slightly higher, now estimating it at 154,39 million tonnes, an increase of 0,6% due to updated numbers from last year’s strong soybean meal export performance.

Soybean Oil: Exports Up, Local Use Down

While most estimates for soybean meal remained unchanged, Abiove increased its forecast for soybean oil exports by 27,3% from February’s figures, now at 1,4 million tonnes. The adjustment follows the Brazilian government's decision to maintain the biodiesel blend at 14%, rather than increasing it to 15% as initially expected.

This move, made to avoid potential food inflation—since soybean oil makes up about 74% of Brazil’s biodiesel production—also caused a cut in domestic soybean oil consumption for 2025. Abiove now projects it at 10,1 million tonnes, a reduction of 3,8% from previous expectations.

According to Brazil’s energy regulator ANP, more than 7 billion litres of soybean oil were used in biodiesel production in 2024 alone.

Despite the minor forecast cut, Brazil’s soybean sector continues to show strong momentum, with both domestic supply and export activity holding steady at record levels.