📉 Sugar Prices Drop Sharply – Market Rejects Bullish Momentum

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw a sharp decline on 24 March 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 1.84% to USD 542.40/t (EUR 504.43/t), reversing recent short-term gains. Despite producers offering forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA, EU spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA, highlighting weak demand and growing pressure in the physical market.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 24 March 2025

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🌍 Market Drivers & Situation

🔹 Technical selling pressure returns:– Following last week's bounce, prices declined again on Monday as speculative momentum faded.– Lack of fundamental demand kept the downward pressure intact.

🔹 EU market still unresponsive:– Spot prices are unchanged at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.– Offers for forward contracts at EUR 0.62/kg FCA continue, but buyers are not responding.– Key question: If producers expect higher prices, why are they selling forward now?

🔹 Global supply remains balanced:– India and Thailand face smaller harvests, but no export disruptions.– Brazil continues to ship steadily, avoiding any real supply tightness.

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (25–27 March 2025)

📌 Outlook:The market is expected to remain volatile and range-bound. No clear demand catalyst yet.

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📉 Global Sugar Fundamentals

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar prices dropped sharply – speculative buying wasn’t backed by real demand.📉 EU spot market remains weak – producers unable to implement higher prices.📦 Forward prices (EUR 0.62/kg) remain theoretical – the physical market doesn’t support them.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: No urgency – monitor further downside potential.
• 📉 Sellers: Only contract forward if volumes are secured.
• 📊 Traders: Watch technical support around 530 USD/t (494 EUR/t).