IGC Raises Corn and Soy Forecasts – Wheat Faces Weather-Driven Uncertainty

Wheat markets remain in a fragile balance. While expectations for record global corn and soy crops ease pressure, the outlook for wheat is clouded by dry weather in key regions. Investors are watching closely: will tightening stocks and weather risks spark a rally?

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 Quiet markets despite growing weather risks and shifting global supply forecasts.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 IGC Raises Corn & Soy Projections

📊 According to the International Grains Council (IGC):

• Corn production 2025/26: Raised to 1.269 billion tons (vs. 1.217 last season)
• Corn consumption: 1.263 billion tons
• Corn ending stocks: 280 million tons (+6 million)
• Soybean production: Record 427 million tons
• Soybean demand: 426 million tons
• Soybean ending stocks: 83 million tons (+1 million)

📌 Record corn and soy output eases global food security concerns – but wheat is a different story.

🔹 🌾 Wheat Outlook: Risk Remains

📊 The IGC forecasts global wheat production in 2025/26 at 807 million tons,but this figure is conditional on favourable weather:

• North America, Europe, and Russia must experience ideal spring and summer growing conditions
• Dryness in Eastern Europe after a dry winter could undermine yields

📌 Any dryness in Russia or Ukraine could lead to downgraded harvest expectations.

🔹 📉 Global Wheat Ending Stocks to Fall

📊 Despite a solid harvest outlook, global wheat ending stocks are expected to decline again in 2025/26.

📌 This tightening could provide price support in the medium term – if markets react.

🔹 🌍 Regional Weather Concerns

🇷🇺 Russia:

• Winter wheat emerged from dormancy better than expected, thanks to mild conditions
• However, soil moisture remains a concern, especially for spring wheat planting, which makes up about one-third of Russian production

🇺🇸 Kansas (USA):

• 47% of the winter wheat area shows inadequate soil moisture
• Only 48% rated good-to-excellent, 7 points lower than last year

📌 Moisture deficits across key producers could reduce yield potential.

🔹 📉 Market Sentiment: Investors Still Betting Against Wheat

📊 Despite rising weather risks:

• Speculators are maintaining large net-short positions
• Any shift in weather outlook could trigger short-covering rallies

📌 The market may be setting up for sudden upward corrections.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (March 26–28, 2025)

📌 Markets remain range-bound, but vulnerable to sharp moves if weather shifts.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Kansas, Great Plains (Winter Wheat)

📍 Current: ~Half of the area still lacks sufficient moisture📆 Outlook:

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures
• 🌧️ Scattered rain; not enough to ease deficits

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Black Sea Region

📍 Current: Winter wheat improved, but dryness persists📆 Outlook:

• 🌡️ Favorable temperatures
• 🌧️ Little rain forecasted – risk for spring wheat and early crop development

📌 Wheat markets remain highly sensitive to regional weather changes.

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📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: IGC Supply Forecast

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📌 6. Conclusion & Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ Corn & soy output surge, but wheat faces weather-related uncertainty✅ Global wheat stocks likely to tighten again✅ Eastern Europe & Russia face increasing moisture stress✅ Investors remain bearish, but short-covering rallies are possible

📌 Strategic Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Watch soil moisture trends and be ready to act on short-term rallies🔹 Buyers: Consider locking in volumes before spring weather risk spikes🔹 Traders: Market is coiled for volatility – a shift in weather sentiment could trigger price surges

📍 Weather and geopolitics will continue to drive price direction in the weeks ahead.