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Rapeseed Gains While Soybeans Slip โ€“ Weather, Trade, and USDA Outlooks Shape Sentiment

Rapeseed Gains While Soybeans Slip โ€“ Weather, Trade, and USDA Outlooks Shape Sentiment

๐Ÿ“ˆ Rapeseed Gains While Soybeans Slip โ€“ Weather, Trade, and USDA Outlooks Shape Sentiment

๐Ÿ“ Rapeseed kicked off the week with modest gains, while soybean markets softened under the weight of export competition and a stronger U.S. dollar. Canola futures diverged, with old crops holding up but new crops slipping, as tariff discussions and weather forecasts add layers of uncertainty ahead of critical USDA reports.




๐Ÿ“Š 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends

๐ŸŒ CBoT โ€“ Soybeans & Products

๐Ÿ“ˆ Euronext โ€“ Rapeseed Futures

๐Ÿ“Œ ICECA โ€“ Canola Futures (Winnipeg)




๐ŸŒ 2. Key Drivers & Market Insights

๐Ÿ“Œ Rapeseed Strength Led by Old Crop, But Outlook Remains Fragile

  • Nearby Euronext rapeseed futures advanced further, supported by technical buying and a weaker euro.
  • Gains in new crop contracts were limited by favourable European weather, as EU crop monitoring service MARS expects yields to rise 9% vs last year.

๐Ÿ“Œ U.S. Tariff Fears Keep Soy Markets Cautious

  • U.S. traders are watching for potential 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and the EU beginning April 2, which could trigger retaliatory moves.
  • Export-sensitive commodities like soybeans are seen as particularly exposed.

๐Ÿ“‰ Canola Mixed as Traders React to Policy & Currency Moves

  • Old crop futures firmed slightly in Winnipeg, but new crop contracts fell, reflecting broader uncertainty.
  • A stronger Canadian dollar added pressure to ICE futures.

๐Ÿ“‰ Palm Oil Hits Multi-Week Lows on Weaker Veg Oil Market

  • Malaysian futures fell for a second session, driven by sluggish exports and weaker soy oil prices.
  • Benchmark June contract closed at 4,376 MYR/t (-4.4% w/w) or USD 990.27/t.

๐ŸŒฑ Brazilโ€™s Harvest Progresses, But Forecast Cut

  • AgRural lowered its production outlook to 165.9 MMT, citing drought in southern states.
  • Harvest progress reached 77%, well ahead of last yearโ€™s 69%.

๐Ÿšข U.S. Soybean Exports Improve

  • USDA inspection data showed 822,214 t shipped in the week ending March 20, +25% w/w and +4.7% y/y.
  • China remained the top destination with 404,561 t, followed by Egypt and Mexico.
  • Cumulative 2024/25 shipments reached 39.93 MMT, up 9.2% y/y.





โ›… 3. Weather Outlook โ€“ South America

๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil:

โ†’ Soybean harvest continues at a rapid pace; yields are steady except in drought-hit southern states.

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina:

โ†’ Soil moisture remains a concern in parts of the northeast.โ†’ High temperatures and rainfall deficits may further reduce yield potential.




๐Ÿ”ฎ 4. Price Forecast โ€“ Next 3 Days

๐Ÿ“ˆ Rapeseed (Euronext)

  • Trend: Stable to bullish near-term, though gains could stall if canola remains weak.
  • Resistance: โ‚ฌ505/t
  • Support: โ‚ฌ485/t
  • Range: โ‚ฌ490 โ€“ โ‚ฌ500/t

๐Ÿ“‰ Soybeans (CBoT)

  • Trend: Cautious ahead of USDA reports and global policy risks.
  • Resistance: 1,020 ct/bu
  • Support: 995 ct/bu
  • Range: 1,000 โ€“ 1,015 ct/bu





๐Ÿ“‰ 5. USDA Ending Stocks โ€“ Soybeans






๐Ÿ” 6. Summary & Outlook

๐Ÿ“ˆ Market Summary:
  • Rapeseed continues to recover, but stronger supply outlooks in the EU and volatility in Canada could slow momentum.
  • Soybeans remain pressured by favourable harvests and export uncertainty, though demand has improved short term.
  • Traders are shifting focus to the USDAโ€™s planting and stock reports due March 31.
๐Ÿ”ฎ Expect heightened volatility as trade policy developments and USDA projections come into focus.
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