California’s Walnut Industry - Marketer Managed to Sell 92% of The Crop

February 2025 brought a mix of progress and pressure for California’s walnut industry. Grower-marketer groups managed to sell 92% of the crop by month-end—a strong performance early in the season. Still, actual shipment volumes came in lower than expected, reflecting the continued strain from last year’s smaller harvest.

Smaller Crop Drives Supply Constraints

The 2024 harvest totaled just 598,221 inshell tons—far short of the 670,000 tons originally forecast and down 23,4% from 2023. The drop in output is largely tied to poor weather, changing farming practices, and broader financial pressures in the sector. With tighter supply, buyers both at home and abroad faced difficulty securing enough product, testing the industry’s ability to meet steady demand.

California Walnut Market Snapshot

International Price Pressure from China

Cheaper Chinese walnuts have started to take market share in key regions like the Middle East and North Africa—areas that have traditionally favored California-grown nuts. These markets saw reduced shipments from the US, underlining how sensitive global buyers are to price. In response, California sellers are rethinking how to price and position their walnuts to stay competitive.

What to Expect Moving Forward

Industry analysts say carry-out stocks could fall to their lowest point since 2020–2021, making inventory planning even more important. To stay competitive, California walnut producers may need to lean into their strengths—like product quality, sustainability practices, and brand trust. A focused marketing approach could help the industry hold ground, even as it deals with tight supply and increasing competition.