📉 Sugar Market Struggles with Confidence – Price Swings Continue Despite Rebound

Although ICE Sugar No. 5 futures recovered slightly on 25 March 2025, sugar remains a problem child in the global market. The May 2025 contract rose 0.42% to USD 544.70/t (EUR 506.57/t), yet spot prices remain under pressure. In Poland, a 1 kg retail bag is reportedly sold for just EUR 0.37/kg, undermining efforts by producers to justify higher prices.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Market Summary (25.03.2025)

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Drivers & Commentary

🔹 Moderate Rebound – But Still a Rollercoaster Ride

• Small gains across all contracts reflect technical recovery, not renewed demand.
• Analysts continue to describe sugar as "volatile and uncertain".

🔹 Retail Price in Poland Raises Eyebrows

• Discounter stores in Poland reportedly offer 1 kg bags at EUR 0.37/kg.
• This is well below industry break-even and contradicts producers' rhetoric of "necessary price increases."
• The market policy appears disconnected from real consumer pricing.

🔹 EU Producers Still Offering EUR 0.62/kg FCA – But Buyers Unimpressed

• Spot prices hold at EUR 0.50 – 0.53/kg FCA.
• Forward offers for Q4/2025 remain high but lack conviction and urgency from buyers.

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (26–28 March 2025)

📌 Outlook:Short-term stability is possible, but sentiment remains fragile due to weak retail and wholesale alignment.

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📉 Global Fundamentals

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📌 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar prices rebound – but the trend remains fragile❌ Retail prices in Eastern Europe undercut market logic❌ EU producers' strategy lacks credibility when spot and retail prices diverge

Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Leverage retail pressure to negotiate better terms
• 💼 Sellers: Only push price increases with clear volume commitments
• 📊 Traders: Watch support at 535 USD/t and resistance near 550 USD/t for intraday setups

📉 Sugar remains volatile – and confidence remains shaky.