Wheat Prices Fall to Multi-Month Lows – Black Sea Shipping Deal Weighs on Sentiment

Wheat futures continued their decline, with the Euronext front-month contract hitting its lowest level since November. Progress in Black Sea trade negotiations, improving weather, and cautious export trends kept pressure on the market. Will upcoming USDA data or a shift in weather sentiment trigger a reversal?

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 The Euronext May contract reached its lowest close since late November 2024.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Progress on Black Sea Export Talks

📊 Russia and Ukraine agreed to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea, mirroring the previous grain corridor initiative:

• No attacks on ports or energy infrastructure
• Freight and insurance costs are likely to fall, improving the export competitiveness of Russian and Ukrainian wheat

📌 The market is pricing improved supply reliability from the Black Sea region.

🔹 📉 Wetter Conditions Improve Across Eastern Europe

📊 Rainfall expected in key wheat-producing regions:

• Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania all forecast above-normal precipitation
• Soil moisture expected to improve for spring planting

📌 Rain forecasts are easing weather-related risk premiums.

🔹 📉 SovEcon Cuts Russia’s 2024/25 Export Forecast

📊 New projections:

• 40.7 million tons (–1.5 million vs. prior estimate)
• Well below USDA’s 45 million t forecast and last year’s 55.5 million t
• 2025/26 forecast raised slightly to 39.1 million tons

📌 Despite the revision, the market shows little reaction – suggesting it was already priced in.

🔹 📉 EU Wheat Exports Improve Slightly – Still Below Average

📊 As of March 24, 2025:

• EU soft wheat exports: 15.46 million t (–35% YoY)
• +309,000 t from the previous week
• Germany: 1.84 million t (+90,000 t WoW)

📌 A mild rebound, but far below last year’s pace.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (March 26–28, 2025)

📌 Markets may remain under pressure unless weather risks return or export activity surprises to the upside.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇷🇺 Russia, 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇵🇱 Poland – Eastern Europe / Black Sea

📍 Current: Soil moisture is low but improving📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Rain expected in all major growing regions
• 🌡️ Mild spring, no frost risks

🇺🇸 USA – Kansas, Great Plains (Winter Wheat)

📍 Current: Soil moisture remains uneven📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Spotty rain, but not enough for full recovery
• 🌡️ Spring temperatures favourable for growth

📌 Weather risks are currently declining, reducing price support.

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📉 5. Long-Term Supply Outlook (SovEcon & EU Commission)

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:✅ Prices fell to multi-month lows on improving Black Sea logistics and weather forecasts✅ Russia and Ukraine offer cheaper and now more reliable grain✅ EU and U.S. exports show minor recovery but remain well below average✅ Weather conditions now favour a stable spring planting season

📌 Strategic Recommendations:🔹 Producers: Consider holding positions until after USDA’s March 31 reports🔹 Buyers: Monitor Russian and Ukrainian logistics – short-term discounts possible🔹 Traders: Be ready for sharp price moves if weather or diplomacy shifts

📍 Markets remain extremely sensitive to weather and geopolitical developments.