📈 Rapeseed Breaks Key Resistance While Soybeans Retreat – Tariffs and USDA Reports Dominate Outlook
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The European rapeseed market continued its upward streak, breaking above the €500/t mark for the first time in three weeks. Meanwhile,
soybeans and meal turned lower in Chicago, as traders weigh the risks of new trade tariffs and look ahead to major USDA reports next week.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
📈 ICECA – Canola Futures (Winnipeg)
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Insights
📌 Rapeseed Reclaims €500 Level
- Euronext rapeseed rose for the sixth straight session, buoyed by strength in Canadian canola and a softer euro.
- The market now sits at a two-week high, with technical momentum returning.
- Positive sentiment persists for old crop contracts, though uncertainty looms for new crops due to strong EU production outlooks.
📉 Soybeans Weaken on Trade Jitters
- Soy complex traded lower as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU could take effect April 2.
- Markets remain cautious ahead of USDA’s March 31 reports on U.S. grain stocks and planting intentions.
- Traders anticipate reduced soybean acreage in favour of corn, though the weather will likely play a role.
📈 Canola Recovers Despite Policy Pressure
- ICE canola bounced back, with gains seen across all contracts.
- Despite tariffs from China and pending U.S. policy decisions, the market appears to have found a short-term floor.
📉 Malaysian Palm Oil Drops Again
- Palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur fell to their lowest closing price in nearly two months.
- Weak demand and falling soy oil prices continue to pressure the palm market.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
🇧🇷 Brazil:
→ Harvest 77% complete; pace ahead of last year (69%).→ Recent
drought in southern Brazil has prompted crop estimate reductions.
🇦🇷 Argentina:
→ Conditions remain
dry in the northeast.→ Heat stress may further weigh on the late-planted crop.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Bullish near term as old crop strength continues.
- Resistance: €510/t
- Support: €490/t
- Expected Range: €495 – €510/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Weak ahead of key USDA data and trade uncertainty.
- Resistance: 1,015 ct/bu
- Support: 995 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,000 – 1,010 ct/bu
📉 5. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
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Key Takeaways: - Rapeseed has regained strength, breaking through a key technical level.
- Soybeans remain under pressure as global policy decisions and key reports weigh on sentiment.
- Canola shows signs of resilience, though sustained rallies may depend on macro drivers.
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The week ahead will be shaped by USDA reports, trade headlines, and South American harvest momentum.
