US Tariffs and Ukraine Supply Constraints Keep Soybean Prices in Limbo

Soybean prices have stayed stable for nearly three weeks, as traders await the completion of the South American harvest, updates on US planting areas, and the introduction of new US tariffs next week. On the Chicago Board of Trade, May soybean futures are hovering around USD 0,37 per kg, reflecting a 4,2% month-on-month dip. Analysts suggest that US exports to China might be constrained if tariffs rise.

By the end of March, the USDA will release its first 2025 planting forecast, a crucial factor likely to influence soybean price trends.

Key Market Figures of Soybean

South America’s Progress

In Brazil, harvesting is 77% complete, up from 69% last year. Forecasting agency AgRural reduced its MY 2024/25 estimate by 2,3 million tonnes—down to 165,9 million, although the USDA projects 169 million. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange anticipates 48,6 million tonnes, aligning closely with the USDA’s 49 million.

Strong US Exports Despite Tariff Worries

Between March 14–20, US soybean exports rose by 25% to 822.000 tonnes. Total US shipments this season stand at 39,93 million tonnes, 9,2% ahead of last year. China remains a key buyer, taking 9,13 million tonnes in January–February 2025, compared to 4,96 million a year ago.

Ukraine’s Price Levels

Export prices for GMO soybeans in Ukraine remain around USD 0,385–0,388 per kg, with limited supply and tempered demand keeping quotes stable. Some traders are willing to pay slight premiums, but most processors show caution in purchasing. Non-GMO soybeans have risen marginally to USD 0,425–0,428 per kg, reflecting tighter availability.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s record soybean harvest has led to competitive global offers, persuading many buyers to delay purchases in hopes of even lower prices. In this context, analysts continue watching the new US tariffs and ongoing South American harvest as pivotal factors that could push soybean prices higher—or pull them back—in the coming weeks.