Strategic Shipping Could Help Ukraine Capture Key Markets

Ukraine plans to ramp up corn exports between October and December 2025, aiming to capitalize on seasonal demand in Europe and Asia. Market analyst Maksym Kharchenko notes that this period gives Ukraine a unique chance to fill the gap left by American corn, as most Brazilian shipments to Asia conclude by October. With precise timing, Ukraine could secure a stronger foothold in these key markets.

Global Competition in Corn and Tariff Effects

Kharchenko explains that in the first quarter of each year, U.S. corn typically meets global demand while Southern Hemisphere crops begin entering the market. However, rising global tariffs are expected to push prices higher. This opens a window for Ukraine to make deliveries between January and March 2026, when export values could reach USD 0,24–0,26 per kg.

By contrast, the period from April to June 2026 could be more competitive. Argentina is expected to dominate exports during this time, targeting major buyers like Mexico, China, South Korea, and EU countries. Ukraine will need to adapt as South American shipments gain ground.

Export Timing as a Competitive Advantage

By front-loading shipments before South American supplies flood the market, Ukraine could hold a short-term competitive edge. Analysts stress that successful timing—especially when transitional stocks are low—could make a major difference for exporters looking to lock in better prices.

Ukraine’s total corn exports in the 2025/26 season could exceed 27 million tonnes, according to preliminary trade estimates.

Timeline of Corn Export Events

The export window at the end of 2025 offers Ukraine a clear opening before South American competition intensifies. Exporters are closely watching global policy shifts and market signals to fine-tune their strategies for the months ahead.