Sugar Prices Ease Again โ Market Reacts Cautiously After Short Recovery
๐ Sugar Prices Ease Again โ Market Reacts Cautiously After Short Recovery
After a mild rebound, ICE Sugar No. 5 prices fell again on 26 March 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 0.81% to USD 540.30/t (EUR 502.48/t), with similar losses across all maturities. Despite continued volatility, the spot market in the EU remains unmoved, reflecting weak demand and a growing disconnect between wholesale and retail dynamics.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices โ 26 March 2025
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐ Market Drivers & Developments
๐ป Mild Correction Following Weak Technical Signalsโ Speculative activity weakened, and momentum stalled just below key resistance levels.โ Trading focused on short-term positions, mostly in May and August contracts.๐ EU Market Still Disconnectedโ Spot prices in the EU remain at EUR 0.50โ0.53/kg FCA, with little reaction to international movements.โ Retail prices in Eastern Europe continue to undercut wholesale narratives (e.g., EUR 0.37/kg in Poland).โ Producersโ efforts to enforce EUR 0.62/kg FCA forward prices remain ineffective.
๐ฆ๏ธ Global Supply Conditions Balancedโ No new production issues or export bottlenecks were reported.โ Brazilโs exports continue at a solid pace, while India and Thailand remain stable.
๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (27โ29 March 2025)
๐ Outlook:Short-term volatility will likely remain in place, with no clear demand catalyst. Buyers continue to hold back as pricing remains erratic.๐งพ Global Sugar Fundamentals
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Sugar markets remain technically driven and sensitive to momentum shifts.โ The EU market shows no evidence of strengthening despite contract offers at EUR 0.62/kg.๐ Retail dynamics and oversupply continue to undermine pricing power.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Continue to negotiate firmly โ no fundamental reason to accept higher prices.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Only fix forward prices when linked to volumes or contracts.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for support around 535 USD/t (498 EUR/t) and resistance near 545 USD/t.
