Rapeseed Gains Again as Old Crop Stays Firm – Soybean Market Waits for USDA Signals
📈 Rapeseed Gains Again as Old Crop Stays Firm – Soybean Market Waits for USDA Signals
📍 The European rapeseed market extended its rally, with the May contract rising for the seventh session in a row. While old crop demand remains firm, traders remain cautious ahead of key USDA data that could reshape planting expectations and supply outlooks.📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
📈 ICECA – Canola Futures (Winnipeg)
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Factors
📌 Old Crop Rapeseed Leads the Rally
- The May contract rose again, supported by:→ Tight old crop supplies→ Firm demand from crushers→ Weaker euro and stronger veg oil markets
- Canola's strength in Winnipeg also helped lift sentiment.
📉 Soybean Market in Wait-and-See Mode
- Traders are cautious ahead of the March 31 USDA reports, including:→ Planting intentions, with estimates calling for reduced soybean acreage:
- Reuters poll: 83.76 million acres, down from 87.05 million last year.→ Quarterly stocks report – average trade estimate: 1.905 billion bushels.
- Range: 1.823 – 2.016 billion bu
- Last year: 1.845 billion bu
🚢 Brazil Exports Continue to Impress
- ANEC estimates March soybean exports at 14.8 MMT, far above February’s 9.6 MMT.
- Soymeal exports are also expected to rise: 2.05 MMT in March vs. 1.5 MMT in February.
🔄 Speculative Positioning on Euronext
- Non-commercial traders cut their net-long position in rapeseed futures from 20,495 to 12,975 contracts.
- Commercials reduced their net short from 30,766 to 19,788 contracts.
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
📍 Brazil:→ Harvest 77% complete.→ Drought in southern regions (especially Rio Grande do Sul) is reducing yield potential.📍 Argentina:→ Soil moisture remains low in key zones.→ Crop stress remains a concern.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Old crop remains supported; new crop stable to weaker.
- Resistance: €520/t
- Support: €495/t
- Expected Range: €500 – €515/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Sideways ahead of USDA data.
- Resistance: 1,015 ct/bu
- Support: 985 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 995 – 1,010 ct/bu
📉 5. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
📈 Market Insights:- Old-crop rapeseed remains well-supported, but new crops are struggling to find the upside.
- Soybeans face headwinds from rising Brazilian exports and uncertain U.S. planting.
- All eyes are now on USDA reports and geopolitical trade developments.
