📌 Corn Prices Fall Again – Traders Nervous Ahead of USDA Planting & Stocks Reports

U.S. corn futures dropped for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, while European prices firmed slightly. The market is holding its breath ahead of Monday's crucial USDA reports.

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Prices weakened further in Chicago as traders trimmed positions ahead of the upcoming USDA grain stocks and acreage data. Euronext corn, however, found mild support from stronger wheat futures.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

➡ Three days of losses reflect rising caution and pre-report uncertainty.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

➡ Euronext corn is slightly up, tracking firm wheat markets.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 📊 USDA Reports (due March 31):
  • Grain Stocks (March 1): Analyst average: 8.153 billion bu
    • Range: 8.06 – 8.311 billion bu
    • Last year: 8.352 billion bu
  • Acreage Intentions: Reuters poll average: 94.361 million acres of corn
    • Up from 90.594 million in 2024
• 🛢 EIA Ethanol Data (last week):
  • Production: ↓ 52,000 bpd → 1.053 million bpd
  • Stocks: ↑ 775,000 barrels → 27.35 million barrels(Mainly in the Midwest)
  • Exports: ↑ 53,000 bpd → 164,000 bpd
  • Refinery inputs: ↓ 18,000 bpd → 878,000 bpd
• 📦 USDA Export Sales (due today):
  • Expected: 0.6–1.6 million tons for 2024/25
  • New crop: up to 100,000 tons
• 🇧🇷 Brazil Exports (ANEC):
  • March forecast: 338,000 tons
  • February: 1.3 million tons
  • March 2024: only 141,000 tons

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

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🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks

➡ Supply remains adequate globally, but planting decisions could shift expectations sharply.

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📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🟠 Short-term outlook remains defensive ahead of the USDA reports.
• 📉 Weak ethanol output and technical pressure weigh on prices.
• ⚠️ Watch for volatility spikes post-Monday’s data.

🧭 Strategy: Avoid aggressive long positions until acreage and stock numbers are released. Potential opportunity for positioning on post-report reaction.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Mar 28–30)

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