California Almond Market Prices Firm Up

In February, the California almond market exhibited mixed trends across different regions, with overall shipments aligning with industry expectations. Strong global demand coupled with a tighter almond crop has begun driving prices upwards. Buyers remain cautious, preferring short-term purchasing due to uncertainties around potential tariff changes. Given the current scenario, early procurement is recommended to ensure consistent supply and avoid shortages.

Commitments and New Sales Trends

Almond commitments reached 577,4 million pounds, marking the highest level in the past three months. Yet, this is a decline of about 8,5% compared to the previous year, reflecting lower domestic and export commitments. Despite cautious purchasing behavior from buyers, new sales in February were robust at 221 million pounds, registering a 3% increase compared to last year and setting a new monthly record.

Considering a projected almond crop of 2,7 billion pounds, current shipments and commitments represent about 69% of the total supply, marginally lower than the previous year's 70%. Given these figures, the almond industry appears set for a tight carryout similar to last year.

Crop Situation and Future Concerns

Current almond crop receipts stand at 2,68 billion pounds, indicating the final crop size will be around 2,7 billion pounds—down 1% compared to last year. With consistent shipment patterns, supply shortages are expected earlier, especially as the market transitions towards the new crop period, pushing prices higher.

Looking ahead to the 2025 almond crop, there is rising concern over surpassing last year's production due to ongoing challenges. Persistent heat stress from last summer, continued water scarcity, and reduced inputs by growers have adversely affected orchard productivity. Although it remains early to predict exact outcomes, these factors will be closely observed in upcoming months as they may significantly impact future almond supply dynamics.