📈 Rapeseed Rally Continues – Market Eyes Biofuel Policy and USDA Reports
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The rapeseed market extended its winning streak, closing above €520/t for the first time in over three weeks. While soybean oil and canola provided strong support, soybeans and meal traded unevenly.
Traders are now turning their focus to upcoming USDA reports and developments in U.S. biofuel policy.
📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Insights
📌 Rapeseed Rally Supported by Oils
- Strong gains in soybean oil, canola, and Malaysian palm oil fueled the ongoing rally.
- Rapeseed has now risen for seven consecutive sessions, the strongest run of the year so far.
- New crop prices approached the €500/t mark, though resistance may build at that level.
📉 Soybeans: Uneven Complex
- Soybean oil led the charge with strong demand, while soya meal lagged.
- Export sales of soybean oil exceeded expectations at 44,500 t, +30% vs. the previous week.
🇺🇸 Trump Administration Calls for Biofuel Policy Truce
- According to Reuters, White House advisors are pushing for an agreement between the oil and biofuel industries.
- A compromise could offer more clarity and reduce volatility for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS).
📊 USDA Export Data (Week ending March 20)
- Soybeans: 338,500 t (slightly below estimates)
- Soymeal: 165,600 t (within range but weaker vs. 4-week avg)
- Soybean oil: 44,500 t (well above expectations of 5,000–30,000 t)
⛅ 3. Weather Outlook – South America
🇧🇷 Brazil
→ Harvest is now
77% complete, ahead of 69% at the same time last year.→ Yields remain solid, but
southern drought conditions led to revised production estimates.
🇦🇷 Argentina
→
Dryness persists in the northeast, raising late-season risks.→ Key USDA data on stocks and acreage will offer further direction.
🔮 4. Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Outlook: Bullish short term, though consolidation possible.
- Resistance: €530/t
- Support: €505/t
- Expected Range: €510 – €525/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Outlook: Supported by export demand and oil strength, but cautious ahead of USDA.
- Resistance: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support: 1,000 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,020 ct/bu
📉 5. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans (Long-Term Outlook)
🔍 6. Summary & Outlook
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Market Sentiment: - Rapeseed is riding high on bullish momentum from oil markets.
- Soybeans remain firm, supported by exports and biofuel demand, though USDA reports may reset the narrative.
- Traders are cautious ahead of March 31 – a pivotal day for crop balance sheets and acreage signals.
🔮
The next big move could come from the USDA – the market is watching stocks and planting intentions very closely.
