UK Wheat Futures Gain As Global Market Support

UK wheat futures ended higher, influenced by positive global market sentiments. Feed wheat futures for May-25 increased to USD 0,22 per kg, rising by about USD 0,002 per kg compared to the previous session. Similarly, November-25 wheat futures increased to USD 0,23 per kg, up by USD 0,002 per kg. International markets supported these gains, with Chicago wheat futures rising 2,06% and Paris milling wheat futures (May-25) up 0,45%, due to weather concerns in the US.

However, Paris rapeseed futures (May-25) decreased slightly to USD 0,50 per kg, while Winnipeg canola futures (May-25) saw a rise of 1,6% after five consecutive declines.

UK Wheat and Barley Exports Remain Below Average

Exports of UK wheat were sluggish in January, totaling 18,700 tonnes, significantly below the five-year January average of 52,100 tonnes. Total wheat exports from July to January were 88,800 tonnes, marking a decline of 48% compared to last year and 80% below the five-year average.

Barley exports also declined, reaching 59,900 tonnes in January, down by 35% year-on-year. From July to January, barley exports fell 37% to 317,100 tonnes, also 61% below the five-year average. This slowdown resulted from a strong pound, a reduced wheat crop, and weak European demand.

Export forecasts for 2024/25 show wheat exports declining by 32% to 175,000 tonnes, with barley exports predicted at 500,000 tonnes, a reduction of 280,000 tonnes compared to last year.

Firm Grain Imports and Volatile Fund Positions

Contrary to exports, grain imports have been firm. Wheat imports reached 258,600 tonnes in January, with total imports for July-January at 1.963 million tonnes, predominantly high-quality milling wheat from Canada (134,800 tonnes). Maize imports also rose to 307,800 tonnes in January, totaling 1.73 million tonnes from July to January, which is 17% higher than the five-year average.

Investment funds continue to influence grain prices due to market volatility and tariff concerns. Paris milling wheat net-short positions reached a seven-year high, and UK feed wheat net-short positions stood at 1,222 contracts. In Chicago maize futures, net-long positions dropped sharply from 350,000 contracts in February to 146,542 contracts by mid-March, indicating market caution amidst uncertainties.