📉 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Ramadan Quiet, Prices Slightly Weaker 📉

📍 With the end of Q1 and the start of the Ramadan holidays, the Turkish hazelnut market has entered a quiet phase. Raw material prices softened slightly, as liquidity is needed for quarterly interest payments and no significant trading activity is expected during the upcoming holiday week. Export price lists were adjusted slightly upward due to corrections from the previous week, but overall market momentum is paused.

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📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments

🔹 Key Observations:

• Raw material prices eased slightly, mainly due to liquidity-driven sales by exporters before the quarter's end.
• No currency-driven effects this week – the TRY/EUR exchange rate remained largely stable.
• Factories are to remain closed next week due to Eid al-Fitr holidays, with no major activity expected.

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🌍 Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 Market Enters Pause Mode

• No significant events or trading activity were observed this week.
• Both buyers and sellers are waiting to assess potential frost damage after the holiday week.

🔹 End-of-Quarter Financial Pressure

• Quarter-end interest payments created mild price pressure as sellers sought liquidity.
• Exporters offered slight discounts to generate cash flow before holidays.

🔹 Holiday Closure Ahead

• Factories in Turkey are expected to be closed for Eid celebrations, which will significantly slow market activity for the week.
• Buyers and sellers will likely reassess positions post-holiday, potentially shifting market dynamics depending on frost reports.

🔹 Export Price Adjustments are Carryovers

• The slight increase in export prices is largely a technical correction from the previous week.
• Many sellers are waiting for clearer signals, especially regarding potential quality issues and frost effects.

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🔮 Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)

📉 Expected Price Trends (Post-Holiday Outlook):

• 11–13 mm raw kernels: Stable to slightly weaker, range: €7.95 – €8.10/kg.
• Small kernels & paste: Mixed trend, potential sideways movement depending on inventory dynamics.
• Market remains directionless until frost impact and demand trends post-holiday become clearer.

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⛅ Weather Trend (Next 14 Days)

🇹🇷 Turkey – Black Sea Growing Regions

📍 Current Situation:🌤️ Stable and mild spring weather. No further frost events were reported.

📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

• 🌡️ Temperatures gradually rising: 12°C–18°C daytime expected.
• 🌧️ Scattered showers around April 4–7.
• 🌱 Favorable conditions for early bud development, but quality risks remain due to past weather volatility.

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📉 Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production

📍 Global Hazelnut Ending Stocks – Historical Trend

📍 Turkey’s Estimated Production (in-shell)

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🔍 Key Takeaways & Market Recommendations

📌 Summary: ✔️ The market is taking a break after recent volatility.✔️ Raw material prices are slightly weaker due to quarter-end liquidity needs.✔️ Factories closed for Ramadan holidays, minimal activity expected.✔️ Frost risks are still unresolved; post-holiday evaluations will be critical.

📈 Strategic Outlook:

• Short-Term: Sideways to slightly weak pricing; no strong impulse expected before mid-April.
• Mid-Term: Watch for signals regarding frost impact and TMO pricing.
• Long-Term: Declining global stocks keep the fundamentals tight.

💡 Buyers:

• Use the quiet phase to secure favourable offers, particularly on mid-sized and high-quality kernels.
• Monitor post-holiday market reactions, especially in light of potential frost damage.

💡 Sellers:

• Avoid aggressive sales until post-Ramadan positioning becomes clearer.
• Prepare for a potential upward shift in prices if frost damage or TMO pricing adjustments emerge.