Sugar Prices Drift Lower to Close Q1 โ No Support from Fundamentals or Demand
๐ Sugar Prices Drift Lower to Close Q1 โ No Support from Fundamentals or Demand
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures ended the first quarter weakly, with the May 2025 contract slipping by 0.15% to USD 534.90/t (EUR 497.46/t). Despite intraday spikes above USD 548/t, the market could not sustain gains. EU spot prices remain stuck between EUR 0.50 โ 0.53/kg FCA, and forward offers at EUR 0.62/kg FCA continue to meet resistance. The global sugar market remains oversupplied, with no visible demand momentum.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (31.03.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐ Market Sentiment & Drivers
๐ Q1 Closes in the Redโ The May 2025 contract tested resistance near USD 548/t but reversed late-session.โ Broader risk sentiment and weak macro signals weighed on agri commodities.๐ช๐บ EU Sugar Market Remains Underwhelmingโ Spot prices hold steady between EUR 0.50โ0.53/kg FCA.โ Producersโ forward offers at EUR 0.62/kg remain largely unaccepted.โ Buyers remain cautious heading into the Q2 contracting window.
๐ฆ Retail Discounts Continue to Undermine Confidenceโ Reports of retail prices at EUR 0.37/kg in Eastern Europe add to market confusion.โ Disconnect between producer pricing logic and end-consumer realities persists.
๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (01โ03 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:The market will likely drift within a narrow band without clear bullish drivers. Weak EU demand caps the upside.๐งพ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Q1 ends with weakness and no clear directional signal.๐ EU sugar prices remain stuck, while forward offers look increasingly unrealistic.โ๏ธ Global stocks remain stable, but the demand side offers little support.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Q2 offers should be reviewed carefully โ no rush to commit.
- ๐ญ Sellers: Only fix forward volumes with firm commitments.
- ๐ Traders: Monitor support near 530 USD/t (492 EUR/t) โ momentum remains negative.
