Corn Mixed as Old Crop Rallies on Exports – USDA Reports Offer No Surprises

While the USDA’s planting and stock reports met expectations, strong export inspections supported old-crop futures. New crop contracts remained slightly weaker.

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CBOT corn ended Monday with old crop prices firming, while new crops remained under pressure. The USDA’s long-awaited reports confirmed a large jump in acreage, but no major surprises. Euronext corn followed CBOT higher, though gains were modest.

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📈 Market Situation & Price Development

🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)

➡ Export optimism helped support front-month contracts, but the market remains cautious post-USDA data.

🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)

➡ Prices in Paris saw mild strength but remain under harvest pressure and competition from Black Sea origins.

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🔍 Key Market Drivers

• 📦 USDA Export Inspections (week ending March 27):
  • Corn shipments: 1.644 million tons
  • Exceeded expectations of 1.0–1.5 million tons
  • Strong demand supported old crop futures
• 📊 USDA Prospective Plantings Report:
  • Corn acreage estimate: 95.33 million acres
  • ↑ +5% vs. 2024 (90.6 million acres)
  • In line with the analyst average (95.36 million acres)
• 📉 USDA Grain Stocks Report (as of March 1):
  • Corn stocks: 8.151 billion bushels
  • 201 mbu lower YoY
  • Stock draw Dec-Mar: 3.92 billion bu (vs. 3.82 last year)
  • In line with trade estimates

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☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)

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🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks

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📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)

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💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment

• 🔄 USDA reports = neutral impact due to expectations already priced in
• 🔼 Export demand remains a bright spot for old-crop
• 🔽 New crop still faces pressure from large acreage and technical resistance

🧭 Strategy: Maintain a neutral-to-cautious stance. Front-month contracts may find support from demand, while new crop is capped by large acreage.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 2–4)

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