📜 Wheat Futures Recover Modestly – Smaller U.S. Acreage and Demand from North Africa Provide Support 📜

Wheat prices moved higher at the start of the week as markets responded to smaller-than-expected U.S. planting intentions and renewed export demand from Morocco and Egypt. While fundamentals remain fragile, lower acreage estimates and international interest provided a short-term lift.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 Euronext and CBOT futures moved higher after hitting multi-month lows last week.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 U.S. Wheat Planting Intentions Lower Than Expected

📊 The USDA's Prospective Plantings report showed:

• 2025 wheat acreage estimated at 45.35 million acres↳ 2% down from 2024, and the second-lowest on record since 1919
• Winter wheat: 33.3 million acres (–2% vs. Feb estimate, –1% YoY)
• Spring wheat: 10.02 million acres (–6% YoY, below 10.531m as expected)
• Durum: 2.02 million acres (–2% YoY)

📌 The lower acreage surprised the market and supported futures, especially spring wheat in Minneapolis.

🔹 📦 U.S. Grain Stocks Report Slightly Bearish

📊 The USDA reported:

• Quarterly wheat stocks at 1.237 billion bu↳ Slightly above expectations (1.215 bbu)↳ Up from 1.098 bbu last year

📌 Larger-than-expected stocks capped the upside from acreage news.

🔹 📈 France Sees Fresh Export Demand from Morocco and Egypt

📊 Traders reported interest in French wheat from North African buyers

• French prices remain discounted to Russian wheat by $4–6/t FOB
• Egyptian and Moroccan tenders added support to old-crop prices

📌 Despite a stronger euro, Euronext gained on-demand hopes.

🔹 📦 U.S. Export Shipments Down, But Still Above Last Year

📊 USDA export inspections (week ending March 27):

• 435,644 t shipped↳ 10.2% below last week, 13.5% below last year↳ FY total: 17.29 million t, +16.4% YoY

📌 Export pace still strong on a seasonal basis, despite short-term dip.

🔹 📉 SovEcon Revises Russia’s March Export Outlook Upward

📊 SovEcon now expects:

• March 2025 wheat exports: 1.8 million t↳ +200,000 t from previous forecast
• February estimate: 1.9 million t,↳ down sharply from 4.8 million t in March 2024
• No significant barley or corn exports are expected in March

📌 A slower Russian export pace could tighten global wheat flows in Q2.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 2–4, 2025)

📌 Prices may remain range-bound until more export activity or weather risk emerges.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇺🇸 USA – Plains (Winter & Spring Wheat)

📍 Current: Some rain, improving planting conditions📆 Outlook:

• 🌡️ Mild temperatures
• 🌧️ Rain forecast across spring wheat regions (esp. Minnesota, N. Dakota)

🇷🇺 Russia & 🇺🇦 Ukraine – Black Sea Region

📍 Current: Soil moisture improving after March rain📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Continued rain in southern Russia, Ukraine
• 🌡️ Warm weather favourable for winter wheat development

📌 Weather outlook stabilizing – a key factor in limiting price rallies.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights

U.S. Export Summary (Mar 27 week)

CFTC – Fund Positioning (March 25)

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:✅ USDA acreage report triggered short-term price recovery✅ North African demand supports French wheat✅ Russian exports lower YoY, but stable month-on-month✅ Stocks still large, weather improving – bearish backdrop remains

📌 Recommendations:🔹 Producers: Stay patient, sell into any strength from demand headlines🔹 Buyers: Consider forward coverage if North African demand accelerates🔹 Traders: Monitor fund activity and watch for shifts in Russian export pace

📍 The wheat market remains range-bound – upside limited by strong supplies, downside capped by reduced planting and emerging demand.