Sugar Prices Surge at Q2 Opening โ Futures Jump Over 2% Across the Board
๐ Sugar Prices Surge at Q2 Opening โ Futures Jump Over 2% Across the Board
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures kicked off Q2 2025 with a strong rally. The May 2025 contract climbed by 2.02% to USD 545.90/t (EUR 507.69/t), with gains of over 2% in nearly all active agreements. While the movement reflects speculative optimism, physical demand in the EU remains muted, and spot prices have not followed.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Price Overview (01.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐ Market Commentary & Drivers
๐ Strong Speculative Start into Q2โ Trading volumes were very high, especially in May and August contracts.โ The rally appears driven by technical momentum and fund positioning, not fundamentals.๐ช๐บ EU Market Reaction Absentโ Spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.50โ0.53/kg FCA.โ Forward offers above EUR 0.60/kg continue, but buyers remain defensive.โ The retail discount pricing environment (e.g., EUR 0.37/kg in Poland) continues to dominate sentiment.
๐ Global Market Viewโ No fresh news from producing regions.โ Brazilโs harvest conditions remain favourable.โ India and Thailand report no disruptions.
๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (02โ04 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Expect continued volatility. Without fundamental support, the upside may be limited and prone to correction.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Strong technical breakout to start the new quarter.โ EU market remains unresponsive โ the disconnect between paper and physical pricing widens.๐ Retail pressure continues to weigh on confidence.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: No reason to follow futures higher โ stay cautious and selective.
- ๐ญ Sellers: Use this speculative rally to secure volume-linked contracts.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for profit-taking above 548 USD/t (510 EUR/t).
