Wheat Futures Continue to Rebound – U.S. Acreage Surprise and French Demand Support Market
📜 Wheat Futures Continue to Rebound – U.S. Acreage Surprise and French Demand Support Market 📜
Wheat futures extended their recovery on Tuesday, with markets responding to lower-than-expected U.S. acreage and signs of increased French export demand. Despite export headwinds in the EU, tight U.S. plantings and a weaker euro-supported sentiment, helping the market bounce off recent lows.📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends
📌 Euronext followed CBOT higher, buoyed by export optimism and tighter U.S. acreage.
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📉 U.S. Wheat Acreage Estimates Remain Supportive
📊 Traders continued to digest the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, which showed:- 2025 total wheat area at 45.35 million acres (2nd lowest since 1919)
- Winter wheat: 33.3 million acres, down 2% from the February Outlook Forum
- Spring wheat: 10.02 million acres, down 6% YoY
- Durum: 2.02 million acres, down 2% YoY
🔹 📦 USDA Export Inspections Highlight Solid YoY Gains
📊 For the week ending March 27:- 435,644 tons shipped, down 10.2% from the previous week
- Still +16.4% above the same point last year
- Mexico (76,142 t) and South Korea (67,470 t) were key destinations
🔹 📉 EU Export Pace Still Disappointing
📊 As of March 30:- EU soft wheat exports: 16.68 million t (–36% YoY)
- Weekly increase: +220,000 t
- Germany: 1.89 million t (+50,000 t WoW)
- Imports down 12% YoY to 6.31 million t
🔹 📈 French Wheat Regains Competitiveness
📊 Support came from expectations of sales to Morocco and Egypt- French FOB prices are now competitive vs. Black Sea offers
- A weaker euro added to export attractiveness
🔹 🌧️ Weather Conditions Mixed Across Europe
📊 Dry weather across much of the EU is becoming a concern:- March was drier than average from France to the Baltics
- Forecasts show continued dryness through April 9
- Warmer temps could lead to early-season drought stress
- Southeast Europe (Balkans) received abundant rainfall
🔹 📉 Russia 2025/26 Crop Outlook Revised Down
📊 Argus Media cut its Russian wheat production forecast to 80.3 million tons (from 81.5)- Lower spring wheat area offsets improved winter wheat conditions
- Russian farmers are switching to oilseeds and pulses
🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 3–5, 2025)
📌 Volatility may persist as traders balance export softness in the EU with tighter U.S. acreage.
⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
🇺🇸 USA – Plains (Winter & Spring Wheat)
📍 Current: Moisture improving in spring wheat zones📆 Outlook:- 🌧️ Light rain expected across dry areas
- 🌡️ Mild temperatures favorable for planting
🇪🇺 EU – From France to the Baltics
📍 Current: Soil dryness is a growing concern📆 Outlook:- 🌡️ Temperatures rising
- 🌧️ Very little rain expected through April 9
📉 5. Export & Production Trends – Weekly Highlights
📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ U.S. planting intentions below expectations provided short-term price support✅ French wheat becoming more competitive – demand may rise✅ EU export data remains weak, capping rallies✅ Dryness across much of Europe could affect winter crop development📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Watch for demand-led rebounds to lock in old crop prices🔹 Buyers: Take advantage of current price levels for nearby needs🔹 Traders: Position for weather volatility and monitor weekly crop ratings from USDA (resuming Monday)
📍 Wheat markets are still fragile – any weather or export shift could spark sharp moves in April.
