📈 Rapeseed Regains Momentum – Biofuel Hopes and Strong Veg Oils Drive Prices Higher
📍 After a brief pullback on Monday, rapeseed rebounded sharply on Tuesday. Driven by rising soybean oil prices and renewed biofuel optimism in the U.S., the Euronext May contract climbed above €525/t, while canola in Canada rallied by over 2%. Traders remain focused on biofuel policy shifts and upcoming tariff decisions.
📊 1. Market Overview – Futures & Trends
🌍 CBoT – Soybeans & Products
📈 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Insights
📌 Rapeseed Strengthens on Oil Market Rally
- The 5% surge in soybean oil prices sparked broad buying across the oilseed complex.
- Euronext May rapeseed reached a 3-week high, benefiting from tight old crop supply and technical momentum.
🛢️ U.S. Biofuel Talks Fuel Speculation
- Agriculture and oil industry groups are reportedly negotiating an increase in the U.S. biodiesel mandate from 3.35 to up to 5.75 billion gallons.
- Such a policy shift, expected to be endorsed by the Trump administration, could boost domestic demand for vegetable oils.
📈 Canola Follows, Eyes U.S. Trade Outcome
- ICE canola posted strong gains, led by old crop strength.
- Traders are closely watching for further guidance from Washington regarding tariffs on Canadian oilseed products.
🌴 Palm Oil Resumes Rally
- Malaysian futures gained over 2% following Ramadan holiday closures.
- March exports are estimated at 1.05 MMT, only slightly above February, but supportive for short-term sentiment.
🔮 3. 3-Day Price Forecast
📈 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Bullish, with continued oilseed support and speculative interest.
- Resistance: €535/t
- Support: €510/t
- Expected Range: €515 – €530/t
📈 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Stable with upside potential if biofuel policies evolve.
- Resistance: 1,045 ct/bu
- Support: 1,015 ct/bu
- Expected Range: 1,020 – 1,040 ct/bu
📉 4. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans (Outlook)
🔍 5. Summary & Outlook
📈
Key Takeaways: - Rapeseed snapped back strongly after Monday's pause, buoyed by soybean oil and canola strength.
- Biofuel policy rumours provided a fresh narrative for buyers.
- Soybeans also advanced, though questions around U.S. trade and processing capacity remain.
🔮
The next catalysts will likely come from Trump’s tariff plans and finalized U.S. biofuel legislation – both with direct impact on global vegetable oil markets.
