📈 Sugar Prices Continue Uptrend – Futures Reach New Short-Term Highs

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures extended their rally for a second day, with the May 2025 contract rising by 1.27% to USD 552.90/t (EUR 514.20/t). Strong speculative buying and fund positioning pushed prices to the highest close since mid-March. However, the physical market in Europe remains disconnected, as EU spot prices stay flat at EUR 0.50–0.53/kg FCA.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 Prices – 02 April 2025

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🌍 Market Commentary & Drivers

📈 Futures Driven by Technical Momentum– Second day of strong upward movement.– Resistance near USD 555/t is being tested.– Trading activity remains concentrated in short-term contracts (May–Aug 2025).

🇪🇺 EU Physical Market Unchanged– No follow-through in physical trade.– Spot prices remain stable: EUR 0.52–0.54/kg FCA.– Forward contracts above EUR 0.60/kg FCA remain unsupported by buyers.

🌦️ Fundamentals Still Balanced– No new supply shocks were reported.– Brazil and India both report steady harvest progress.– Thai exports remain strong and consistent.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (03–05 April 2025)

📌 Outlook:Futures may continue to push higher, but technical exhaustion is near. Without physical confirmation, rallies may fade quickly.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Sugar futures continue to rise – momentum-driven.❌ Physical demand remains soft, especially in the EU.📉 Spot prices show no confirmation of futures strength.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Stay patient; no need to follow futures rally.
• 📦 Sellers: Use the rally to secure forward contracts with volume conditions.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for resistance near 555 USD/t (516 EUR/t) – profit-taking likely soon.

📍 The paper market rallies, but the real world is not buying it – yet.