📉 Global Sugar Prices Decline – But EU Producers Raise Prices Again

While ICE Sugar No. 5 futures declined for a second day, EU producers raised prices in the domestic market by EUR 0.02/kg, moving spot offers to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg FCA. The May 2025 ICE contract fell by 1.02% to USD 538.30/t (EUR 500.62/t), continuing the correction after speculative highs. The pricing gap between the global and EU markets grows wider, highlighting the protective impact of EU sugar tariffs—to the detriment of consumers.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (04.04.2025)

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Drivers & Observations

📉 Global Market Under Pressure– Prices declined across all maturities for a second consecutive session.– Weak demand, technical correction, and no fresh fundamentals weighed on sentiment.

🇪🇺 EU Market Moves in the Opposite Direction– Producers raised spot prices by EUR 0.02/kg, lifting FCA levels to EUR 0.52–0.55/kg.– No change in consumer demand, but Schutzzölle (protective tariffs) allow producers to maintain high pricing.– The disconnect between world and EU prices becomes increasingly evident.

⚖️ Who Pays the Price?– Consumers in the EU face artificially inflated prices, while world market sugar becomes cheaper.– Current conditions highlight the true cost of tariff protection for food processors and end-users.

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🔮 3-Day Forecast (05–07 April 2025)

📌 Outlook:Weak sentiment is likely to persist, with speculative positioning scaling back. EU prices are likely to stay high due to non-market factors.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Global sugar prices continue to fall.❌ EU producers defy trend – increasing prices despite oversupply.📉 Consumers bear the cost of EU trade policy.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers (EU): Question price increases – global prices don’t support them.
• 📦 Sellers: Leverage protection while it lasts – demand remains cautious.
• 📊 Traders: Stay defensive – volatility remains, but downside potential is limited near USD 530/t.

📍 Sugar remains a tale of two markets: open vs protected.