📊 Market Analysis: Global Peanut Trade Dynamics

The global peanut market is currently witnessing a phase of relative stability, largely influenced by governmental policies in major producing countries like India. With the government actively participating in the market through peanut auctions, price fluctuations have been minimized, ensuring a steady market outlook.

In India, the government's intervention has set a floor price, with bids often surpassing the average of USD 0.58 per kg in Gujarat. This has introduced a level of predictability into the market, which is crucial for both domestic and international traders. The quality of government-sold peanuts, including popular varieties like Java and No. 32, will soon be tested as they enter the market.

Current prices in Banaskantha show a variation based on peanut counts, influencing both domestic consumption and export levels. The closure of Ramadan might boost export activities, potentially supporting market prices if vacuum trade escalates. However, the low crop yield anticipated due to reduced sowing in Gujarat suggests a tight supply ahead, which could uphold prices in the near term.

📈 Price Trends and Recent Movements

📉 Market Drivers

• Government policies and auctions stabilizing prices.
• Seasonal effects from Ramadan potentially increasing export demand.
• Anticipated low yield in Gujarat impacting supply levels.

⛅ Weather Forecast and Impact on Harvest

With the sowing of summer peanuts completed in Gujarat, the weather plays a crucial role. The current forecasts suggest no major disruptions, which is vital for the already reduced crop yield. In Maharashtra and Banaskantha, timely arrivals of new crops are expected by early June, barring any unforeseen weather events.

📉 Global Production and Inventory Levels

Comparatively, global peanut production is expected to remain stable with India and Brazil as key players. However, inventory levels are closely watched, with any significant reduction potentially impacting prices globally.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Given the current market stability and upcoming crop reports, prices are expected to remain steady with slight fluctuations depending on export demand and government auction results.