Sugar Prices Plunge โ Market Reacts to Weak Fundamentals and Strong Supply
๐ Sugar Prices Plunge โ Market Reacts to Weak Fundamentals and Strong Supply
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures fell sharply across all contracts on 8 April 2025. The May 2025 contract dropped by 2.05% to USD 523.20/t (EUR 486.58/t), marking the biggest single-day decline in weeks. Despite this, EU producers continue to hold prices firm, raising spot offers again to EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA. The price gap between international and EU markets widens further, exposing the effects of tariff protection and sluggish demand.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (08.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Observations
๐ Futures Under Heavy Selling Pressureโ Weak demand, high speculative positioning, and strong Brazilian flow pushed prices down.โ May futures traded on high volume, suggesting funds are actively reducing exposure.๐ช๐บ EU Prices Defy the Trend โ Spot Offers Rise Againโ Despite falling world market prices, EU producers raised offers to EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA.โ This move appears unsustainable, especially with retail and global trends moving in the opposite direction.
๐๏ธ Retail Prices Stay Low in Eastern Europeโ Poland: EUR 0.42/kgโ Czech Republic: EUR 0.50/kg (Kaufland Card)โ German retail: EUR 0.69/kg (Edeka offer)โ France and the Netherlands remain significantly higher, but stable.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.04.2025)
๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (09โ11 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Unless a demand recovery or export disruption emerges, the market is likely to drift lower in the short term.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Global sugar market correcting โ demand remains fragile.โ EU prices disconnected from reality โ upward adjustments not justified.๐ The contrast between retail offers and producer ambitions continues to widen.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Use futures weakness to pressure spot offers โ international prices argue for lower costs.
- ๐ญ Sellers: Avoid raising prices without volumes โ resistance from buyers is strong.
- ๐ Traders: Closely watch the USD 520/t (EUR 483/t) support zone โ it may soon be tested again.
