Rapeseed Holds Steady While Soybean Market Eyes Trade War and Biodiesel Policy
📈 Rapeseed Holds Steady While Soybean Market Eyes Trade War and Biodiesel Policy
📍 Rapeseed futures in Paris remained mostly stable on Monday, while soybean prices in the U.S. attempted a mild rebound from recent lows. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to dominate the oilseed complex, though hopes for increased domestic biodiesel demand in the U.S. offer some support.📊 1. Market Overview – Futures Movements
🌍 CBOT – Soybeans
📉 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures (08.04.2025)
📈 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
🌍 2. Key Market Drivers
🇺🇸–🇨🇳 Trade Tensions Escalate Further
- China recently imposed a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybean imports.
- President Trump has threatened another 50% tariff, raising the total rate to 104%.
- Market participants see further U.S. exports to China as unlikely, as China pivots to Brazil.
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices Collapse
- Brent and WTI crude dropped over 3% on Monday, extending a 20% slide since last Thursday.
- The collapse weighs on biofuel-linked commodities, including palm and soybean oil.
🌱 Hope for Biodiesel Expansion Supports Soy Oil
- Industry groups are urging the EPA to increase biodiesel mandates to 5.25 billion gallons in 2026.
- While below earlier rumours (5.5–5.75 bn gallons), the proposal could boost U.S. soybean oil demand.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Prices & Harvest Progress
- Brazilian cash prices rise, adding support to CBOT futures.
- Harvest progress reached 87% by April 3, up 11.5% from a year earlier.
- In Rio Grande do Sul, drought continues to reduce yields, AgRural reported.
🇨🇦 Canola Strengthens on Soy Optimism
- Canola rallied on Tuesday, following soy strength and hopes for relaxed Chinese tariffs.
- Canada may benefit if China reconsiders its 100% duty on canola oil and meal.
🌴 Palm Oil Ends Losing Streak
- Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher, ending a 3-day decline.
- Gains were capped by concerns about rising inventories in Malaysia.
🔮 3-Day Outlook – Price Forecast
📉 Euronext Rapeseed
- Support: €510/t
- Resistance: €530/t
- Outlook: Stable to firm on biofuel sentiment
📉 CBOT Soybeans
- Support: 970 ct/bu
- Resistance: 1,000 ct/bu
- Outlook: Cautious recovery, but fragile amid trade tension
📉 4. USDA Soybean Export Inspections (Week ending April 3)
Year-to-date total: 41.555 MMT (+11% y/y)
🔍 5. Summary & Outlook
📉 Key Takeaways:- Soybeans are trapped between tariff anxiety and biodiesel optimism.
- Rapeseed continues to consolidate at higher levels, supported by oil strength and a weaker euro.
- Canola gains suggest confidence in Canadian trade routes.
