📦 Canada's Rapeseed Exports Soar – But China's New Tariffs Cast a Shadow

📍 Canada has significantly boosted its canola (rapeseed) exports in the 2024/25 season, posting a year-on-year increase of more than 70%. However, looming trade tensions—particularly China's newly imposed 100% tariffs—threaten future momentum.

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📊 1. Current Export Performance

According to recent data from Week 34 of the 2024/25 marketing year (which began August 1, 2024), Canada has exported approximately 6.866 million metric tons of canola.

📈 This marks:

• +70.3% increase compared to the same period last year (2023/24)
• +75.2% over the 2022/23 season

📌 Top export markets include:

• Mexico
• Japan
• European Union (notably Germany)
• China (until recently a key buyer)

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🌐 2. Outlook for 2025/26

Despite this strong performance, analysts from UkrAgroConsult forecast that Canada’s canola seed exports could drop to 6.5 million tons in 2025/26.

📉 Why?

• Increased domestic processing capacity: more canola will be crushed locally for oil and meals.
• Rising domestic biodiesel demand.
• Growing trade uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions.

Canada has invested heavily in its own refining infrastructure, which is expected to gradually reduce raw seed exports.

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🚨 3. Trade Conflict with China

On March 20, 2025, China implemented a sweeping set of retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, in response to Canadian duties on Chinese EVs and metals.

📌 Impact:

• In 2024, China imported 6.39 million tons of rapeseed products from Canada.
• Nearly all Chinese rapeseed imports originated from Canada.
• Futures on China’s Zhengzhou exchange spiked immediately after the announcement:
  • Rapeseed meal: +8%
  • Rapeseed oil: +5.2%

Analysts caution, however, that these price surges may not last. China has sizable reserves and access to alternative suppliers such as Russia and the EU.

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🔍 4. Summary & Strategic Outlook

📉 Short Term:

• Canadian exports remain strong for now, but political risks are increasing.
• Losing China as a core buyer will require a realignment of export strategies.

📈 Medium Term:

• Domestic processing and biodiesel programs are expected to support local demand and prices.
• If trade tensions ease, Canada could quickly regain ground in China.

🔮 Strategic Insight: To mitigate geopolitical risk, Canadian exporters will need to diversify market access, strengthen partnerships with the EU, and capitalize on biofuel growth. The coming months could be pivotal in reshaping Canada's place in the global oilseed trade.