Sugar Prices Collapse Further โ Downtrend Accelerates Despite EU Price Firmness
๐ Sugar Prices Collapse Further โ Downtrend Accelerates Despite EU Price Firmness
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures experienced a steep decline on 9 April 2025. The May 2025 contract fell by 1.93% to USD 513.30/t (EUR 477.37/t), while contracts for later delivery lost up to 2.5%. Despite the continuing global weakness, EU producers have not adjusted their spot offers, which remain at EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA. The discrepancy between global and EU pricing widens further โ raising questions among buyers and traders alike.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (09.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Analysis & Commentary
๐ Accelerating Sell-Off Across Contractsโ The market experienced broad-based losses, with August and October contracts hit hardest.โ No fundamental trigger โ weakness is driven by liquidation and absence of buying.๐ช๐บ EU Market Static and Detachedโ Despite global pressure, EU producers keep offers high: EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA.โ Buyers remain hesitant; forward offers at EUR 0.60+/kg face resistance.
๐๏ธ Retail Reality Continues to Undermine Market Logicโ Eastern European shelf prices remain below EUR 0.42/kg, further highlighting the disconnect.โ EU tariff protection stabilises internal prices, but consumer confidence suffers.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 09.04.2025)
๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (10โ12 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Bearish sentiment persists. Without bullish news, downside potential remains the dominant force.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Recommendations
โ Global sugar prices continue to decline โ technical pressure accelerates.โ EU producers maintain firm pricing โ buyers remain sceptical.๐ Retail prices show real market conditions โ and they point down.๐ Strategy:
- ๐ Buyers: Use global market weakness to renegotiate โ EU prices are unjustified.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Volume-based contracts only; resist raising forward offers.
- ๐ Traders: Technical support at USD 510/t (EUR 474/t) must hold โ or further losses likely.
