Following a significant policy shift, the global onion market has witnessed a notable turnaround. India, a major player in the onion market, has removed its export duty on onions effective from April 1, 2025, after a 19-month imposition. This strategic move has revitalized the market, leading to an immediate price increase of USD 0.18–0.24 per kg, thereby enhancing the profit margins for farmers and stimulating export activities.

Exporters, particularly in Mumbai and Chennai, are now poised to capitalize on this new opportunity, with expectations of increased orders from Gulf and Southeast Asian countries. This report delves into the current state of the onion market, examining price trends, fundamental drivers, and providing a forecast that could influence trading decisions in the coming days.

📊 Market Overview

📈 Price Trends and Market Sentiment

• Significant uplift in prices post-export duty removal.
• Renewed optimism among exporters for robust season ahead.
• Market sentiment is buoyant, particularly in major export hubs.

🌦️ Weather Forecast and Agricultural Impact

Current weather conditions in major onion-producing regions like India and Egypt are favorable, with mild temperatures and adequate rainfall, supporting healthy crop development. However, traders should monitor weather updates closely as any significant changes could impact market dynamics and onion supply levels.

🔮 Market Forecast and Trading Recommendations

• Short-term outlook: Positive, driven by strong export demand and reduced supply constraints.
• Trading advice: Exporters should leverage the current market conditions to maximize returns; importers might consider securing supplies at current prices before further increases.

📉 Three-Day Price Forecast

Prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend due to strong market fundamentals and positive export outlook. Key regions to watch include Mumbai and Chennai, where export activities are concentrated.