U.S. Corn Futures Soar on Lower Ending Stocks – EU Prices Fall After Tariff Pause
➡ U.S. Corn Futures Soar on Lower Ending Stocks – EU Prices Fall After Tariff Pause
U.S. corn futures surged after the latest WASDE report revealed significantly lower domestic ending stocks. In contrast, European prices fell as the EU paused tariffs on U.S. corn imports.
Corn markets reacted strongly on Thursday to the USDA’s April WASDE report. Reduced U.S. ending stocks and continued planting delays pushed U.S. corn prices higher. Meanwhile, Euronext prices fell on news that the EU will suspend retaliatory tariffs, making U.S. imports temporarily cheaper.
U.S. corn futures surged after the latest WASDE report revealed significantly lower domestic ending stocks. In contrast, European prices fell as the EU paused tariffs on U.S. corn imports.
Corn markets reacted strongly on Thursday to the USDA’s April WASDE report. Reduced U.S. ending stocks and continued planting delays pushed U.S. corn prices higher. Meanwhile, Euronext prices fell on news that the EU will suspend retaliatory tariffs, making U.S. imports temporarily cheaper.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ Nearby contracts hit multi-week highs; long-term contracts followed more modestly.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ European contracts declined sharply after the EU postponed tariff measures against the U.S.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 📉 U.S. Ending Stocks Cut (WASDE):
- Revised to 1.465 billion bu (−75 million bu vs. March)
- Below average expectations (1.510 billion bu)
- Driven by higher export demand; offset by lower domestic use
- 📦 USDA Export Sales (week ending April 3):
- 785,583 tons sold – a 13-week low, but within estimates
- Top buyers: 🇰🇷 South Korea (204,200 t), 🇨🇴 Colombia (196,700 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (180,800 t)
- 2025/26 sales: 236,200 t, mostly to 🇲🇽 Mexico
- 🌍 WASDE Global Adjustments (2024/25):
- Beginning stocks: +380,000 t → 314.33 Mt
- Production: +930,000 t → 1.2151 billion t
- Usage: +1.75 Mt → 1.24178 billion t
- Ending stocks: −710,000 t → 287.65 Mt
- EU production: ↑ to 59.31 Mt (↑1.31 Mt) – gains in 🇵🇱 Poland, 🇫🇷 France, 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇭🇷 Croatia
- 📊 Export Forecasts Revised:
- Higher exports: 🇺🇸 United States
- Lower exports: 🇵🇰 Pakistan
- Higher imports: 🇪🇺 EU, 🇲🇽 Mexico, 🇹🇷 Turkey, 🇵🇪 Peru
- Lower imports: 🇻🇳 Vietnam
- 🇧🇷🇦🇷 South American Crop Estimates:
- Brazil (Conab): ↑ +1.98 Mt → 124.75 Mt
- Argentina (Rosario): ↑ +4 Mt → 48.5 Mt
- Buenos Aires Exchange: 49 Mt
- Frost reported in western Buenos Aires province – damage under assessment
- 💶 EU Market Hit by Tariff Suspension & Currency:
- EU suspends tariffs on U.S. corn imports
- Stronger euro boosts import attractiveness
- Euronext prices under pressure despite global supply tension
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Global Corn Production & Stocks – WASDE April 2025
📊 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison (Top 5 Producers)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 📈 Strong U.S. rally backed by WASDE, weather and a weaker dollar
- 🔻 EU market bearish short term due to tariff pause & firm euro
- 🔎 Watch for volatility ahead of weekend positions and frost damage reports
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (April 12–14)
