📈 Rapeseed Rebounds Sharply – Soybeans Benefit from Weak Dollar and Tighter Oil Balance
After recent losses, rapeseed and soybeans posted substantial gains. A weak U.S. dollar and reduced global vegetable oil stocks provided a fresh boost to oilseed markets.
📊 Market Overview
📌 Euronext Rapeseed (MATIF)
📌 ICE Canola (Winnipeg)
📌 CBOT Soybeans
🌍 Market Drivers
- 📈 Strong Rapeseed Rebound:Old-crop rapeseed gained sharply at Euronext after a weak week. Stronger soybean oil, rising canola futures, and technical buying drove the rise.
- 📉 U.S. Ending Stocks Revised Lower:The USDA April WASDE reduced U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 375 million bu, slightly below average market expectations (379 million bu).
- 🌍 Vegetable Oil Stocks Tighter:Despite rising soybean crush, the USDA lowered global vegetable oil output by 0.9 million tons to 228.1 million tons due to lower palm oil output in Southeast Asia.🌿 Global vegetable oil ending stocks: 28.96 million tons (370,000 tons less than March, 1.8 million tons below previous year).
- 📊 Investors Shift Positions:CFTC data shows funds increased net short positions in CBOT soybean futures/options by 20,600 contracts to 50,447.For soybean oil, net short positions were reversed into net long (30,125 contracts), supporting oil prices.
- 🚢 USDA Export Sales:U.S. exporters sold 121,000 t of soybeans to unknown destinations – 55,000 t for 2024/25 and 66,000 t for 2025/26.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
⛅ 14-Day Weather Outlook
🇦🇷 Argentina
🌧️ Persistent rainfall is delaying harvest in key regions.📍 Only 2.6% harvested (vs. 10% last year).
🇧🇷 Brazil
☀️ Stable weather in central and northern areas.📍 Harvest progress: 87%, ahead of previous year.
🧾 USDA Balance Sheet Snapshot
- U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks (2024/25 – WASDE April):🔻 375 million bu (down 5 million bu from March)
- Global Vegetable Oil Ending Stocks:🔻 28.96 million tons (1.8 million t below the previous year)
