Sugar Market Drops Sharply โ May Contract Hit by Expiry Pressure
๐ Sugar Market Drops Sharply โ May Contract Hit by Expiry Pressure
On 15 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures saw significant losses. The May 2025 contract plunged by 2.79% to USD 513.10/t (EUR 477.20/t), pressured by expiration-related liquidation and continued lack of physical demand. All subsequent contracts also declined, while EU spot offers remain unchanged at EUR 0.55โ0.58/kg FCA, though momentum appears to be fading.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (15.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Commentary
๐ May Expiry Pressure Dominateโ Heavy liquidation in the front-month contract drove prices sharply lower.โ Traders rolled positions into August and October contracts, which also declined.๐ช๐บ EU Prices Hold โ But Sentiment Softensโ No change was reported in the offers: EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg FCA.โ Feedback from buyers suggests resistance is growing, especially with global prices dropping.
๐๏ธ Retail Market Remains Stable But Lowerโ Discount pricing continues across CEE and Germany โ no signal of upward retail movement.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 15.04.2025)
Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (16โ18 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:The downtrend remains intact. The next key support lies at USD 510/t. Without demand, pressure is likely to continue.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Market confirms bearish outlook โ weakness spreading across the curve.โ EU producers still pushing high offers โ but buyers are increasingly resistant.๐ Technical and fundamental pressure weighs heavily on price.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Push back on offers โ spot prices should begin correcting.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Adjust pricing strategy โ current levels not aligned with the market.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for further downside if USD 510/t fails to hold.
