Sugar Prices Rebound โ EU Producers Hint at Further Increases
๐ Sugar Prices Rebound โ EU Producers Hint at Further Increases
After several days of steep losses, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures staged a technical rebound on 10 April 2025. The May 2025 contract gained 2.02% to close at USD 523.90/t (EUR 487.23/t). However, the recovery is widely seen as speculative short-covering, not supported by physical market fundamentals. EU spot prices remain elevated at EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA, and market participants expect another EUR 0.02/kg increase in the coming week.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (10.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Analysis
๐ Speculators Trigger Short-Term Rallyโ After three days of losses, traders rushed to cover short positions, lifting prices quickly.โ The move is seen as technical and not based on changing fundamentals.๐ช๐บ EU Producers Hold Firm โ And Plan to Raise Againโ Spot offers remain at EUR 0.53โ0.56/kg FCA.โ Market chatter suggests another increase of EUR 0.02/kg is likely next week, despite falling global benchmarks.โ Producers justify price resilience with tariff protection and stock control.
๐ Retail Prices Continue to Tell a Different Storyโ Poland: EUR 0.42/kg, Czech Republic: EUR 0.50/kgโ Germany: EUR 0.69/kg (Edeka offer)โ France and the Netherlands remain above EUR 1.50/kg
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 17.04.2025)
Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (11โ13 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Todayโs rally may fade quickly if no fundamental support appears. Markets remain highly reactive and technically driven.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Futures recovered โ but mostly on technical grounds.โ EU prices remain high and out of sync with the global trend.๐ Retail levels continue to pressure industrial logic.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Donโt chase the rally โ remain patient, especially in the EU market.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Use rebounds to secure forward contracts โ but prepare for renewed pressure.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for reversal signs near USD 525โ530/t.
