Sugar Market Stabilizes Slightly – EU Spot Prices Remain Resilient
📈 Sugar Market Stabilizes Slightly – EU Spot Prices Remain Resilient
On 17 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures showed modest gains in the front contracts. The August 2025 contract closed 0.32% higher at USD 498.90/t (EUR 464.98/t). Longer-term contracts showed minor losses, indicating continued uncertainty about demand and macroeconomic pressure. Meanwhile, EU producers continue to hold spot prices above EUR 0.55/kg FCA, defying global market signals.📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (17.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)🧭 Market Commentary
📈 Mild Stability – But Not Yet a Turnaround– Most contracts saw minor price movements, with a slight uptick in the front end.– Volumes remained subdued, indicating lack of strong positioning ahead of the weekend.🇪🇺 EU Price Gap Persists– Spot offers remain at EUR 0.55–0.58/kg FCA, 25% above world market equivalent.– Despite global softness, EU prices have been rising, supported by structural protection and limited imports.
🗨️ Political Perspective:
“As long as the Mercosur agreement is stalled and sugar quotas are restricted, EU sugar will remain expensive – regardless of what the world market says.”
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 17.04.2025)
Last checked: All prices verified within the last 3 days.🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (18–20 April 2025)
📌 Outlook:Sideways movement expected with risk to the downside if macro sentiment worsens.📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Sugar shows early signs of stabilizing.❌ EU market remains politically protected – not responsive to global pricing.📉 Until Mercosur is ratified and quotas are relaxed, prices in the EU will remain detached.📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Stay focused on international pricing as reference; challenge EU premiums.
- 📦 Sellers: Capitalize on structural support but expect growing buyer resistance.
- 📊 Traders: Expect technical resistance near 500 USD/t – no strong breakout in sight.