Recent catastrophic floods in Northeast India, including Assam and Meghalaya, have wreaked havoc on the 2024–25 big cardamom crop, leading to a significant reduction in market arrivals. Estimates suggest a devastating loss of 60–70% in major growing areas, affecting not only India but also neighboring regions like Bhutan, Sikkim, and Nepal. This has tightened the supply chain across the subcontinent, creating a precarious situation for both domestic markets and export dynamics.

Despite the reduced supply, local wholesale prices have seen only modest increases, with big cardamom Kainchi Cut prices currently at USD 19.42–19.53/kg after a recent recovery. The import scenario remains challenging, with high prices in Nepal preventing any significant import activities by Indian traders. On the export front, India has seen a rise in shipments in the first eight months of FY 2024–25, with volumes reaching 915.41 tonnes, a notable increase from the previous year. However, the future of these gains remains uncertain amid tepid domestic demand.

📊 Market Overview

📈 Price Trends and Forecasts

• Current market conditions suggest a cautious outlook, with potential for price stabilization if domestic demand does not improve.
• Export markets may offer some relief, though much depends on global economic conditions and competitive pricing from other producing countries.

🌦️ Weather Forecast for Key Growing Regions

Upcoming weather forecasts indicate continued rainfall in the affected regions, which could further complicate recovery efforts and impact the second cropping season. Traders and producers should prepare for continued supply challenges.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

• Prices are expected to fluctuate between USD 17.00 and USD 19.50/kg, reflecting ongoing market uncertainties and supply constraints.