Sugar Prices Rebound โ But Global-EU Gap Remains as Policy Wall Holds
๐ Sugar Prices Rebound โ But Global-EU Gap Remains as Policy Wall Holds
ICE Sugar No. 5 futures rebounded strongly on 22 April 2025. The August 2025 contract rose 1.42% to USD 506.10/t (EUR 470.67/t), supported by technical buying and short-covering. However, the EU market remains insulated from global volatility, with FCA spot prices unchanged at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg. The pricing gap between international and EU sugar is growing, politically sustained by import restrictions and Mercosur delays.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (22.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Overview
๐ Technical Rebound โ But No Real Demand Catalystโ Sugar futures advanced on speculative positioning.โ No new demand-side news, indicating the move is technically driven, not fundamentally.๐ช๐บ EU Market Steady at High Levels โ Protected by Policyโ FCA offers remain at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg, ~20% above world parity.โ The Mercosur trade deal, though politically concluded, remains unratified.โ Opposition from several EU member states and the sugar lobby is delaying market opening.
๐จ๏ธ Commentary:
โThe EU market is a fortress โ and its walls are holding, but the pressure outside is growing.โ
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 22.04.2025)
Last verified within 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (23โ25 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Short-term upside remains limited without fundamental support. EU pricing is likely to stay firm due to market insulation.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Global market bounces โ but still fragile.โ EU prices remain structurally high due to policy barriers.๐ Structural reform (e.g. Mercosur ratification) is key to alignment.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Use global trends to push for rebates โ policy canโt shield forever.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Protect margins while EU prices remain artificially high.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for signs of export pressure from Brazil and India โ upside is capped.
