📜 Corn Futures Slip Despite Bullish Ethanol Data – Weather and Dollar in Focus 📜

Corn futures moved lower on Wednesday, with weather-driven optimism for planting progress and easing macro concerns weighing prices. Supportive ethanol data wasn’t enough to reverse sentiment, as traders looked ahead to Thursday’s USDA export sales figures.

📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 Prices slipped further as U.S. planting optimism and a firmer dollar weighed on sentiment.

🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 🌤️ U.S. Weather Boosts Planting Outlook

📊 The Commodity Weather Group forecasted:

Next 16–30 days to be drier than normal across much of the U.S. Midwest
Ideal conditions for planting progress
Minimal disruption expected to spring fieldwork

📌 Improved planting weather is putting pressure on new-crop prices.

🔹 📈 U.S. Dollar Recovers – Weighs on Commodities

📊 The dollar rose as trade tensions eased slightly, and:

President Trump backed away from threats to dismiss the Fed chair
Market sentiment stabilised, supporting risk-on flows in equities

📌 A stronger dollar typically limits upside in U.S. grain exports.

🔹 📊 Bullish Ethanol Data Fails to Lift Prices

📊 EIA data for the week ending April 18:

Ethanol production up by 21,000 bpd to 1.033 million bpd
Inventories fell by 1.333 million barrels to 25.481 million barrels
Exports dropped by 62,000 bpd to 75,000 bpd
Deliveries to refiners up by 19,000 bpd to 921,000 bpd (highest since Oct 2024)

📌 Data was bullish, but macro pressure and planting optimism outweighed ethanol gains.

🔹 📦 USDA Export Sales Expected Today

📊 Weekly sales report for April 25:

Old-crop (2024/25) corn sales expected: 0.8–1.3 million t
New-crop sales: 0–100,000 t

📌 Traders will be watching for signals of renewed export demand.

🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 25–27, 2025)

📌 Unless export sales surprise to the upside, further downside is possible due to planting pressure.

⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Corn Belt

🇺🇸 U.S. Midwest (Corn Belt)

📍 Current: Favourable planting conditions 📆 Forecast (Next 14 Days):

🌡️ Temperatures near or slightly above normal
🌤️ Dryness expected to persist – may accelerate seeding

📌 Weather remains the dominant bearish factor for corn in the short term.

📉 5. EIA Weekly Ethanol Data (Apr 18 Week)

📌 Ethanol production and refinery use show strength, but aren’t enough to reverse corn weakness.

📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ Planting conditions remain highly favourable across the Corn Belt✅ A stronger dollar and risk appetite reduce grain market appeal✅ Ethanol data is supportive but overshadowed by planting progress✅ All eyes on USDA’s export data for short-term direction

📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Stay defensive – planting pressure may limit rallies🔹 Buyers: Use current weakness to secure old-crop coverage🔹 Traders: Watch for export sales surprise or early signs of planting delays in May

📍 Short-term fundamentals remain bearish, but the market remains sensitive to export and weather shocks.

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